Silver Audiophile Posted September 26, 2021 Posted September 26, 2021 (edited) Just a heads up guys. Been talking to a couple of folks familiar with the import situation into Oz. Significant price hikes ahead. 15-25% in just one example I'm familiar with. Others, that have been holding back and absorbing rising costs, may begin passing them on. I have been looking more carefully lately at the history of high inflationary periods. History shows, once inflation takes off, it can escalate quickly as consumers panic and buy 'now'. Latest 2nd quarter inflation numbers look high. What are people's thoughts? https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi No panic Edited September 27, 2021 by Silver Audiophile 1
Guest Posted September 27, 2021 Posted September 27, 2021 As someone who dabbles in importation as well as the industry itself, I can confirm this is starting to happen and will get “worse” before it gets better.
Mickstuh Posted September 27, 2021 Posted September 27, 2021 seems to be applying to Holo Audio. I'm sure they won't be the early one. given the crunch on supply lines, parts, shipping space etc, not surprising. unwanted, but unsurprising 1
cafe67 Posted September 27, 2021 Posted September 27, 2021 I think transport costs right now are a biggie. been talking to friends and relies in the UK , bloody hell there is a petroleum shortage because there’s not enuff lorry drivers to deliver the petrol £1:35 a litre there’s a CO2 shortage , meaning packaged food meats n veggies can’t been store properly hence there’s a shortage of fresh produce and it’s expensive 3
Silver Audiophile Posted October 7, 2021 Author Posted October 7, 2021 (edited) It's like a spiral. Supply disruption due to increased demand, parts shortages and price hikes, chip shortages, increased energy prices or outright fuel shortages, and foreign container port closures due to Covid. Workers striking and demanding long overdue pay rise adjustments.. this post from Len Wallis Audio this morning: Edited October 7, 2021 by Silver Audiophile
075Congo Posted October 8, 2021 Posted October 8, 2021 I would think that Audio Retailers in Australia are prepared for whatever comes their way. They have had to tolerate many things over the years........one of the prime factors has been the attitude of Federal and State governments over time towards the Retail Industry. But politics is banned in this Forum. I am always impressed by the "endurance" shown by the Australian Audio Industry.
Grizaudio Posted October 8, 2021 Posted October 8, 2021 Absolutely.... Some stock/hardware is already extremely difficult to get. There is a world wide semi conductor shortage, and freight costs are going up. The combination is not good for electronic hardware. I work in technology sound/tech integration & design, and stock delivery from order is anywhere from 8-16 weeks. Yes 4 months! This is on amplifiers, network switches, LCD displays, control hardware, etc. Price and availability depends on the product/model, but the wait and price hikes are happening and are very real indeed. I think we have already incurred 15% price increases, from most manufacturers. This explains some of it: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=semiconductor+shortage https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=shipping+worldwide+issues
075Congo Posted October 9, 2021 Posted October 9, 2021 Ouch! 15%...how do you take that on the chin and still make a margin. Raising prices will only drive customers off-shore particularly with free international shipping and reduced FEDEX charges. Back in the day when online audio sales "hit the fan" a lot of traditional audio outlets knew what was down the pipeline.
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) Tweeter CEO, Jack Dorsey says.. 'Hyperinflation will happen soon in the US and around the World'. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/23/twitter-and-square-ceo-jack-dorsey-says-hyperinflation-will-happen-soon-in-the-us-and-the-world.html?__source=androidappshare Edited October 24, 2021 by Silver Audiophile
buddyev Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 hyperinflation? I think he’s spending too much time on Twitter. 1
evil c Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 Wow , buy up hifi gear big -folks !! Knew it was a good investment. 3 2
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) On 24/10/2021 at 8:06 AM, buddyev said: hyperinflation? I think he’s spending too much time on Twitter. Expand We shall see Russ. I've been watching the US 10 yr treasury yields closely. In the chart below link, the intermediate yellow down trend line has been broken to the upside. If the longer term red down trend line is also broken to the upside- the 41 year bull market in bonds has ended. It would potentially mean that our last 41 years of relentless falling interest rates and asset price bloom (real estate, stock markets, collectables etc) will end, and the economy at large. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/psuP44yI-US10Y-broke-out-to-the-upside-the-intermediate-yellow-down-trend/ Edited October 24, 2021 by Silver Audiophile 1
maximus Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 Hi end audio might be a difficult sell judging by the bargains we’re seeing in the classifieds ie: X1 Lumin for 12k Benchmark streamer Magico S5 18k Wilson Benech 30k floor standers for 13k. Densen pre/power under 3k. Plus a lot, lot more. These are all fine products, in a normal world, would probably have sold. Raising new products by another 15 percent will be totally out of reach for many, hence online and overseas options would be inevitable. 2
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) On 24/10/2021 at 9:14 AM, maximus said: Hi end audio might be a difficult sell judging by the bargains we’re seeing in the classifieds ie: X1 Lumin for 12k Benchmark streamer Magico S5 18k Wilson Benech 30k floor standers for 13k. Densen pre/power under 3k. Plus a lot, lot more. These are all fine products, in a normal world, would probably have sold. Raising new products by another 15 percent will be totally out of reach for many, hence online and overseas options would be inevitable. Expand There within lies the conundrum. We have a two speed economy. 1) The everyday person facing the challenges of rapidly rising living costs, but stagnant employee income growth, Covid slow down of small business and high debt loads, and living pay check to pay check (they're not panicking about inflation- yet). 2) Those that are asset rich doing well off the asset boom due to record low interest rates to keep the economy from stalling. Inevitably, one of these opposing economic forces will win out in the end. Either Jack Dorsey is right and inflation spirals out of control. In which case, those in group one above (the hardship lot), capitulate and panic buy anything with their last cash savings, fearing their precious little cash will buy little in the near future, thereby they exacerbating the inflation problem further by creating more acute aggregate demand. Group two, also dig in full tilt, bidding up prices in the hopes to 'capitalise' on accelerating asset price rises. Inflation pops, and Central Banks the World over eventually spikes interest rates and the whole thing ends in systemic collapse. Or, things gets really tough economically in the shorter to medium term, and inflation remains stubbornly high- Stagflation (or inflation moderates- Disinflation). Both scenarios not ideal. Longer term, we are back to a future where inflation comes back to bite at some point! Edited October 24, 2021 by Silver Audiophile 3
Addicted to music Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 they do this b4 Xmas every time so you let go cash in fear of price rising but the rises have already been done, retail do not discount b4 Xmas. Most of the sales are stuff they cannot move so they off load that on Black Friday sales to get the ball rolling. Forget Boxing Day sales too, unless you’re fishing and stumbled onto a bargain on a product that could not sell during the festive season that you have no desire to buy. I don’t buy Hifi just B4 or just after Xmas and new year. It’s the wrong time to buy. Just like signing up a new car! You wait till after the end of the year where they cannot move the old plates that are locked onto the previous year, then you’ll see retained stock that didn’t move heavily discounted but you have to be quick. The fear of transport issues will always be there, just don’t fall into the trap. Eventually demand that peak will generally fall like toilet rolls; boy didn’t Hollywood get that wrong, which apocalyptic movie showed you must stock up on dunny rolls when the world was about to end? There are shortages on semiconductors and shortages of other product that will make electronics and automotive harder to get, but these are big $$$ items that will take months if not a whole year to fullfil after an order is place because we simply do not have an auto industry here and at present all auto manufacturers are scaling down production for 2022. There’s also fear about production in China due to electricity shortages due to there refusal to purchase Australian Coal and many areas are rationed by stopping and shutting down manufacturing but rumour has it that some of this is being resolved through other channels. Best of luck in getting what you want for Xmas 1
Jakeyb77_Redux Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 Container prices can’t be argued. Price of anything imported is going to see a rise or shortage. 2
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) Why hasn't inflation spiraled out of control yet, given the extraextraordinary explosion in money supply since 2008's GFC and especially since the Covid outbreak? Inflation = Money Supply x Money Velocity Money Velocity - the tendency for people to spend what money they do have. The answer in two charts- Scary isn't it? You multiply the two charts- No net change to inflation. Only problem is, the money supply is still out there, and always will be. However, once Money Velocity picks up (a psychological phenomena), it will eventually feed into itself as self fulfilling prophesy or panic AKA 'hyperinflation'. Chart 1: M1 Money Supply (Worlds Reserve currency USD) Chart 2: Money Velocity reciprocally collapses as Money Supply spiked after Covid outbreak. Edited October 24, 2021 by Silver Audiophile 1
Addicted to music Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 10:08 AM, Jakeyb77_Redux said: Container prices can’t be argued. Price of anything imported is going to see a rise or shortage. Expand this will happen regardless, what’s worth watching than container price rises is the value of the $AUD…. We don’t have any manufacturing here apart from the building industry. Nearly everything is imported, and at ons stage recycling was cheaper to send o/s; work that out!
stereo coffee Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 10:28 AM, Addicted to music said: this will happen regardless, what’s worth watching than container price rises is the value of the $AUD…. We don’t have any manufacturing here apart from the building industry. Nearly everything is imported, and at ons stage recycling was cheaper to send o/s; work that out! Expand Quite a few of us actually, 1 1
Volunteer sir sanders zingmore Posted October 24, 2021 Volunteer Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 9:05 AM, Silver Audiophile said: We shall see Russ. I've been watching the US 10 yr treasury yields closely. In the chart below link, the intermediate yellow down trend line has been broken to the upside. If the longer term red down trend line is also broken to the upside- the 41 year bull market in bonds has ended. It would potentially mean that our last 41 years of relentless falling interest rates and asset price bloom (real estate, stock markets, collectables etc) will end, and the economy at large. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/psuP44yI-US10Y-broke-out-to-the-upside-the-intermediate-yellow-down-trend/ Expand It's a pretty early call to say the long term trend is about to reverse
Addicted to music Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 10:09 AM, Silver Audiophile said: Why hasn't inflation spiraled out of control yet, given the extraextraordinary explosion in money supply since 2008's GFC and especially since the Covid outbreak? Inflation = Money Supply x Money Velocity Money Velocity - the tendency for people to spend what money they do have. The answer in two charts- Scary isn't it? You multiply the two charts- No net change to inflation. Only problem is, the money supply is still out there, and always will be. However, once Money Velocity picks up (a psychological phenomena), it will eventually feed into itself as self fulfilling prophesy or panic AKA 'hyperinflation'. Chart 1: Federal Reserves Money Supply (Worlds Reserve currency USD) Chart 2: Money Velocity reciprocally collapses as Money Supply spiked after Covid outbreak. Expand I’m not a economist, it’s not my field, but what I do is watch is how economists or “economic experts “ that do these fear mongering and get it all wrong, ATM every “expert” is saying that there’s a big correction in the property market, the charts that are presented are very scary and it’s predicted to dropped in 2022-2024, THEY, have been saying that since the 2008 GFC, then when COVID hit in 2019 and we went into lockdown, the property market was suppose to be dire straits, predictions that value could dropped by 30% Well did it? Yet the clearance in auction is in the 70-80% clearance and even high/upper class real estate hasn’t dropped but severely increased! If real estate was in trouble this is the segment that would be hit the hardest Possibly the only areas where property remained stagnant is inner city apartments where overseas students occupied, but that will come back with a big high when lockdown wind down. what everyone should be worried about is how the government is about to increase higher taxes to cover for the support they spent on keeping people/industries afloat while two biggest Australian cities went into to lockdown. 1
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) On 24/10/2021 at 10:39 AM, sir sanders zingmore said: It's a pretty early call to say the long term trend is about to reverse Expand On 24/10/2021 at 10:09 AM, Silver Audiophile said: Why hasn't inflation spiraled out of control yet, given the extraextraordinary explosion in money supply since 2008's GFC and especially since the Covid outbreak? Inflation = Money Supply x Money Velocity Money Velocity - the tendency for people to spend what money they do have. The answer in two charts- Scary isn't it? You multiply the two charts- No net change to inflation. Only problem is, the money supply is still out there, and always will be. However, once Money Velocity picks up (a psychological phenomena), it will eventually feed into itself as self fulfilling prophesy or panic AKA 'hyperinflation'. Chart 1: M1 Money Supply (Worlds Reserve currency USD) Chart 2: Money Velocity reciprocally collapses as Money Supply spiked after Covid outbreak. Expand If you reference my post above, the early inflation we are seeing now, it is inevitable that as the World's economy opens up and things start to 'return to normal', Money Velocity will pick up. In the face of Money Supply still being out there, the product will be much much higher inflation ahead. On the technical analysis of the US10Y treasury yield chart, the yellow down trend line has broken. Next, a test of the red long down trend line.. once inflation picks up, it will be taken out too. Edited October 24, 2021 by Silver Audiophile 1
Addicted to music Posted October 24, 2021 Posted October 24, 2021 (edited) On 24/10/2021 at 10:33 AM, stereo coffee said: Quite a few of us actually, Expand im sure that all the parts that you use to manufacture are not made here in Australia, you’re just a assembly facility, very little is made here, and because you buy parts made from o/s you’d be watching that $AUD Edited October 24, 2021 by Addicted to music
Volunteer sir sanders zingmore Posted October 24, 2021 Volunteer Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 10:51 AM, Silver Audiophile said: On the technical analysis of the US10Y treasury yield chart, the yellow down trend line has broken. Next, a test of the red long down trend line.. once inflation picks up, it will be taken out too. Expand That's not technical analysis, that's guessing Only if the long term trend line breaks can you say that the long term trend line has broken
Silver Audiophile Posted October 24, 2021 Author Posted October 24, 2021 On 24/10/2021 at 10:49 AM, Addicted to music said: I’m not a economist, it’s not my field, but what I do is watch is how economists or “economic experts “ that do these fear mongering and get it all wrong, ATM every “expert” is saying that there’s a big correction in the property market, the charts that are presented are very scary and it’s predicted to dropped in 2022-2024, THEY, have been saying that since the 2008 GFC, then when COVID hit in 2019 and we went into lockdown, the property market was suppose to be dire straits, predictions that value could dropped by 30% Well did it? Yet the clearance in auction is in the 70-80% clearance and even high/upper class real estate hasn’t dropped but severely increased! If real estate was in trouble this is the segment that would be hit the hardest Possibly the only areas where property remained stagnant is inner city apartments where overseas students occupied, but that will come back with a big high when lockdown wind down. what everyone should be worried about is how the government is about to increase higher taxes to cover for the support they spent on keeping people/industries afloat while two biggest Australian cities went into to lockdown. Expand The collapse in real estate hasn't taken place yet since interest rates have continued to fall (especially post 2008 GFC and 2020 Covid), and money supply supply has increased significantly. Real estate will collapse, once interest rates spike. As mentioned above, interest rates will spike to contain rising inflation if and when it occurs. I believe inflation will occur as the World's economy opens up post Covid shutdown (about now).
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