Jump to content

Paramount = Hd-dvd Exclusive


Recommended Posts

  • Volunteer
You were there? You were in that meeting? Wow :P

Do you think you could say something sensible just for once freak??? :wacko:

Cheers,

Karen

Edited by Kazz
Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Replies 605
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I do not recal him saying they signed a contract? It does present a "get out of jail" option at face value.

If they didn't sign a contract, then Paramount can walk tomorrow. The whole arrangement would be meaningless in that case. There is most definitely a contract of some sort.

Link to comment
Share on other sites





If they didn't sign a contract, then Paramount can walk tomorrow. The whole arrangement would be meaningless in that case. There is most definitely a contract of some sort.

Think I'll pass on this tat for tat argument.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like any business decision, it comes down to value creation. Paramount has obviously made the decision that for now at least, it is more valuable to them to focus on HD-DVD than Blu-ray. There are going to be numerous reasons for this, from profit margins, competitiveness, installed manufacturing infrastructure, royalties etc. etc. These are all boiled down to a number called the Net Present Value (NPV).

They will have more data to work with than us: their current sales of the two products, their own knowledge of their business and costs, their guess on how the "war" will go, market research and probably most importantly, the cost if things go differently to what they expect (the "option" value).

From my limited knowledge of DVD manufacture, I am guessing the capital expense of converting DVD fabrication facilities to HD-DVD is quite low. Blu-ray needs whole new, and expensive, facilities. Also the margins are higher on HD-DVD. So if you had to make a choice, you would probably chose HD-DVD, since the upfront capital costs will be much lower (since you will probably just retrofit existing fabrication). Then if HD-DVD fails, you just install the more expensive blu-ray fabrication facilities (which will probably be cheaper by that point as well).

Probably a key point is that different companies will come up with different Net Present Values for the two options, depending on their forecasts, costs and other factors. For example, Sony will support Blu-ray for quite some time, since I guessing they get some sort of additional benefit being the owners of the technology (royalties or something). But if Blu-ray fails, they will eventually switch to HD-DVD. Another point is that the calculation is quite complex with detailed financial models and the number that comes out at the end may be unexpected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not just the sales though. It's the psycological damage. A lot of what the companies call "early middle adopters" were about to jump in on the Blu Ray side of the fence. This will cause a lot of them to think twice and wait a bit longer. HDM will never become mainstream with two formats (unless dual format players come way down in price). It can survive with 2 formats. But it won't become mainstream.

IF Blu Ray is/was going to win this, this announcement has definitely delayed that victory and any delay plays into HD-DVD's hands.

Also, current sales of HDM are so small that 300 has now sold more than 10% of all HDM discs ever sold. Transformers was likely going to be bigger than that and that's now all going to the HD-DVD side. Big titles such as this can help swing YTD and SI sales numbers.

I agree with you that in all likelihood BD will do better than HD-DVD over the coming holiday season, but they still won't do as well as they would have prior to this announcement. It was looking like HD-DVD was going to be incapable of winning a single weeks worth of sales data for all of 2007. They're guaranteed to win a couple now I would think.

And as for Fox, well they get my spray of the day. How pathetic are these guys? BD has had HD-DVD down on the mat all year and Fox probably had the ability to put them away for good. But Fox for their own selfish reasons (utter paranoia about piracy and probably waiting for the install base to get higher so they can make more money from their catalogue releases) let the other studios do all the hard yards. Only now when they realise the victory isn't going to be that easy, do they actually start to do anything. Honestly, their press release just hours after the Paramount announcement is one of the most pathetic displays I've seen from a major company in a while. Well played champs! ^_^ *golf clap*

Agree, the doubt this places in consumers minds is perhaps the biggest blow to BD - though there is a possibility that doubt over hi-defs future could hurt HD-DVD sales as well.

Worth remembering that ~66% of the '300' sales were on BD format. 'Transformers' will be a big seller for HD-DVD and will sure help their figures.......even if Paramount loses out on more than half their potential sales. :rolleyes: It's ironic because this title would probably have been a huge hit with the PS3 demographic - my 9yo son was looking forward to this title.

Edited by tobes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The format war just got heated up! Some may say it just got started with this Paramount situation.

Although I do support Blu-Ray, by Paramount going to HD-DVD I can see the positive side of it, from a consumer point of view.

Both sides, HD-DVD & Blu-Ray, me thinks that their will be significant price drops of players coming towards the end of the year.

This is a positive thing for consumers, but sh!t for consumers as which format do I choose? Well, it all depends on what movies you want to watch, eh!

90% of consumers, if not more, will not go down the path of owning both formats. Like I've said before, it's the geeks, early adopters and home theatre enthusiasts that will make up the rest of that percentage and it's not going to be many.

We will see the studios on both sides waking up and making major releases (here's hoping so) and flooding it in doing so.

This time next year, what is it going to be like?

Link to comment
Share on other sites



the blu-ray fanbois are in a spin because they cant comprehend how their golden format has taken a blow. the fact of the matter is that a real movie fan will buy into both formats and enjoy the low prices and hd goodness. anyone else is just a whining schoolyard fanboi

I don't really think that "real"movie fans are necessarily going to buy both formats. Most movie fans will want the freedom to watch whatever movie they want so I reckon they'll quite happily stick to DVD until all this stuff gets sorted out. I don't think the jump to HD movies is that compelling to the masses given the sort of money people are expected to pay. I reckon $1000 is pretty steep for a HD player and now it looks like you're going to have double that to get get both formats.

A $2000 investment to watch HD movies - I don't think so.

And where are these so called "cheap" HD-DVD players. Is this not the reason why Paramount went exclusive - because it is cheaper to the general public.

I went into HN today and the only HD-DVD player they had was a Toshiba model worth $1300. Is this not just as expensive (if not more so) then most Blu-Ray players??

Edited by gib_oz
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree, the doubt this places in consumers minds is perhaps the biggest blow to BD - though there is a possibility that doubt over hi-defs future could hurt HD-DVD sales as well.

Worth remembering that ~66% of the '300' sales were on BD format. 'Transformers' will be a big seller for HD-DVD and will sure help their figures.......even if Paramount loses out on more than half their potential sales. :rolleyes: It's ironic because this title would probably have been a huge hit with the PS3 demographic - my 9yo son was looking forward to this title.

As I posted before, in Australia at least it was hard to come by a local copy of 300 on HD-DVD (a lot of people still distrust internet shopping), where as atm BD can be found in most shops. Hopefully this change, and release of big titles only on HD-DVD will mean that more local stores will start carrying HD-DVD and thus helping with sales figures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Worth remembering that ~66% of the '300' sales were on BD format.

And what is more worth remembering (I good english am) is that BD with 10 times as many players in the market only sold twice as many copies of this movie. This is a massive problem for blu-ray. HD DVD owners are buying discs. Blu-ray owners aren't. That is what the studios are looking at. The more standalones in the market the more discs sold. period. The data supports this. So who is going to have the most standalones in the market? I'm sure the numbers have been run. Even looking at the penetration of the PS2 as a base, then the penetration of standalone DVD players, one can easily see where the future is heading. And Paramount embraced it. The only reason we have a war is the PS3. and at it's best forcast penetration rate it can't hope to come close to the potential penetration of standalones. For all the bravdo of Blu-ray having the most hardware support Toshiba is outclassing them at every turn and putting more players in homes. This was happening the day before Paramount ditvhed blu-ray, and now the landscape will change even further in HD DVD's favor.

Blu-ray supporters love to flaunt the 2:1 ratio, but the data behind it suggests this is a very poor performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't really think that "real"movie fans are necessarily going to buy both formats. Most movie fans will want the freedom to watch whatever movie they want so I reckon they'll quite happily stick to DVD until all this stuff gets sorted out. I don't think the jump to HD movies is that compelling to the masses given the sort of money people are expected to pay. I reckon $1000 is pretty steep for a HD player and now it looks like you're going to have double that to get get both formats.

A $2000 investment to watch HD movies - I don't think so.

And where are these so called "cheap" HD-DVD players. Is this not the reason why Paramount went exclusive - because it is cheaper to the general public.

I went into HN today and the only HD-DVD player they had was a Toshiba model worth $1300. Is this not just as expensive (if not more so) then most Blu-Ray players??

I got both a HD DVD player and a blu-ray player for less than $1000AU combined. They aren't talking about Australia. They are talking about the US where standalone HD DVD players can be had for US $199.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



I went into HN today and the only HD-DVD player they had was a Toshiba model worth $1300. Is this not just as expensive (if not more so) then most Blu-Ray players??

The HD-E1 can be bought (full retail) for $750 and much less with a bit of haggling. I, like a few others here, bought a player from the US and paid a little over $500 for it - including delivery.

Have a look at bhphoto.com for an idea of the current price of players in the US. Factor in the cost of shipping and a transformet (110v to 240v) and you'll see there are a few options.

Alongside the HD DVD player I recently picked up a PS3 secondand for about the same cost as importing a new one from Hong Kong. The combined cost to be able to access all HD movies (with exception of the BD titles not sold in Aus that have region coding) is about $1300 including cables and transformer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am curious what you consider the demographic of a $1000 console to be?

Typically, middle/upper class families and single working young adults I guess. The same people who spend $1000's on big screen TV's and the like.

Though let's face it - transformers is a bit of a kiddie/teen movie (yeah, it did start out a little menacing). Personally I couldn't justify buying this movie unless I had kids (which I do :) ).

Edited by tobes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Though let's face it - transformers is a bit of a kiddie/teen movie (yeah, it did start out a little menacing). Personally I couldn't justify buying this movie unless I had kids (which I do :) ).

Megan Fox leaning on the car bonnet is enough for me to buy this movie - even aside from two hours of giant talking robots :D

Actually, Transformers is the main reason I am personally disappointed in this situation - I was hanging out for it in HD and am not in a position to spring for an HDDVD player currently. I had resiled myself to not getting Universal pictures (Bourne in particular) at least for awhile, but Transformers as well is a bitter pill to swallow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Megan Fox leaning on the car bonnet is enough for me to buy this movie - even aside from two hours of giant talking robots :D

Actually, Transformers is the main reason I am personally disappointed in this situation - I was hanging out for it in HD and am not in a position to spring for an HDDVD player currently. I had resiled myself to not getting Universal pictures (Bourne in particular) at least for awhile, but Transformers as well is a bitter pill to swallow.

I dont think you will be alone there - there will be quite a few ppl who are now reconsidering which format to back [if either].

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...
To Top