betty boop Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 Very distant last ! Indeed ! no fore sight ! hazelwood is well well past use by date do do you think anyone had fore sight with regards infrastructure ! greenies will just say yeah close the coal power station but where is the infrastructure to replace the 2000MW hazelwood provided ! we won't as s state be able to support our own needs let alone SA when the wind isn't blowing for its wind turbines ! 3
betty boop Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/warning-of-future-blackouts-as-politics-overtakes-energy-and-climate-debate-20170209-gu9jgo.html wwrning of future black outs for Vic and NSW !
proftournesol Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 There was a blackout in SA because as wind generation dipped, Engie (the company that owns the gas fired power stations) chose not to provide power as it is supposed to because it was gaming the system again. If there's a gap in the supply and they don't take up the tender for power then it is offered at a higher price, Engiw wanted to make more money rather than look after the customer. They also control the gas that supplies the power station and would prefer to export that gas for more money rather than use it locally. No complaints really, this is exactly how a for profit based system is allowed to work, it's no longer a service industry 3
Darren69 Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, proftournesol said: There was a blackout in SA because as wind generation dipped, Engie (the company that owns the gas fired power stations) chose not to provide power as it is supposed to because it was gaming the system again. If there's a gap in the supply and they don't take up the tender for power then it is offered at a higher price, Engiw wanted to make more money rather than look after the customer. They also control the gas that supplies the power station and would prefer to export that gas for more money rather than use it locally. No complaints really, this is exactly how a for profit based system is allowed to work, it's no longer a service industry Thank you Prof, how hard would it be for the news to accurately tell such a story as part of their OMG type coverage but as usual, the story is more to alarm than educate and one is left wondering. I had heard a story some years back on ABC radio about how it all works, was rather evil if I recall.
proftournesol Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 8 hours ago, al said: Very distant last ! Indeed ! no fore sight ! hazelwood is well well past use by date do do you think anyone had fore sight with regards infrastructure ! greenies will just say yeah close the coal power station but where is the infrastructure to replace the 2000MW hazelwood provided ! we won't as s state be able to support our own needs let alone SA when the wind isn't blowing for its wind turbines ! There's no infrastructure to replace it because both major parties, particularly the COAL-ition have avoided creating it, it's nothing to do with greenies. The unpalatable truth for the COAL-ition is that renewable generation will reach cost parity with coal generation later this year and will be cheaper by 2020. The market understands this and there are no investors for new coal plants. Gas generation capacity is limited because even though we will surpass Qatar and become the world's largest gas producer, most of it is exported 1
joz Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 8 hours ago, Saxon Hall said: Hazelwood uses obsolete technology and is by far the worst power station in Australia for CO2 emissions. The foreign owners were unwilling to spend the hundreds of millions of dollars required to modernise it. What other option was there other than to close it?. The fault lays with the greedy state government who privatised the power industry and left the consumers at the mercy of power companies whose one and only purpose is to do the right thing by their shareholders. Nothing more and nothing less. The needs of the customer come a very distant last. Sent from my F1f using Tapatalk Yep the worst thing to happen was when it was privatised. Yea sure competiton will keep prices down as opposed to keeping share holders happy. I miss the SEC. So we now are going into the next decade with less power with a larger population with a building industry building more homes that need power. I know Hazelwood is old and dirty, but with Victorias massive coal reserves it was the cheapest way to secure reliable power for yet a long long time. Boy are our power prices gonna go up! I can see Load Shedding being a part of our future when we loose it. 1
betty boop Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 Great way to encourage industry to Australia isn't it welcome to the land with not enough power to make sure you can keep your lights on! the major outage and failure at alcoa with all their melt pots freezing with no power to keep them molten is testament to just how mis managed the situation is !!! 1
Hergest Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 52 minutes ago, proftournesol said: There was a blackout in SA because as wind generation dipped, Engie (the company that owns the gas fired power stations) chose not to provide power as it is supposed to because it was gaming the system again. If there's a gap in the supply and they don't take up the tender for power then it is offered at a higher price, Engiw wanted to make more money rather than look after the customer. They also control the gas that supplies the power station and would prefer to export that gas for more money rather than use it locally. No complaints really, this is exactly how a for profit based system is allowed to work, it's no longer a service industry This is a truly appalling situation. A bit more detail here in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/nsw-power-shortage-warning-after-revelation-sa-blackouts-forecast-hours-beforehand I remember when the NSW Labor government was trying to sell off the whole electricity system in the 00s and Michael Costa stood up in front of an angry Labor Party conference in Trades Hall or the Town Hall and said that state governments had no role to play in electricity supply. I shook my head in disbelief. Power generation and water/sewage supply should always be the duty of government, it should be one of their prime duties. There is little more critical than this supply. What really irritates is that all the systems were built with public money as they were seen as essential but now most of the bastards have sold it off. 1
Darren69 Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 One assumes the favourite Aussie sport of Gov enterprise bashing will continue unabated.
scuzzii Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 (edited) I wonder what electorates the Brown Outs and Black Outs will happen in... I'm not very political, but do believe in people being accountable. Whilst it will never happen the d'heads who placed some of the community who are vulnerable, dependent on critical services etc.. in this situation should be made to go out to those areas and help manage the essential life support required.... (feeding generators with fuel, transportation of at risk folks, hands and feet activities to keep things moving). might help with motivation to get a solution - as they see first hand the outcomes of the situation during mid 40 degree days over the weekend Edited February 9, 2017 by scuzzii
eman Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 Australia has 'supply problems' in the summer; when there is 'too much' sunshine. Sunshine is an energy. So ; we have too much energy beating down on us. I heard 'some polly' yesterday saying the solution ( disregarding the offline gas plant !) was for SA was for more generation by way of Nuclear or Solar Thermal. Solar Thermal was designed here about 15 years ago. ( I bought the newspaper that had it in and stored it cos I knew it would be 'evidence' later). We still don't have any?? As usual there was no backing and it went offshore. Don't like sunshine but want to import nuclear waste? Build a Thorium Reactor which consumes 'waste' and does not have a 'runaway Reaction' problem. (RANT: Meanwhile some dingbat will be designing an 'App' that wipes your arse and picks your nose for you - but only if you're 2km from a 'tower').
Saxon Hall Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 Scott Morrison was waving a lump of coal around in the Parliament a couple of days ago. He was shouting across the chamber that "The ALP hates coal" That is how political and juvenile the debate has become. You cannot get a rational debate going about the subject of renewable energy sources and the power industry without stunts like this. And then you hear self interested groups talking about "Clean Coal" as if such a thing already exists. Example Victoria has hundreds of years worth of brown coal in the ground It is highly inefficient due to its high moisture content and requires special treatment before it can be burnt. BUT it is available in vast quantities. It also puts vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. It is the backbone of Victoria's Base Load Electricity and has been since early last century. This type of reliable electricity supply is vital to industry and is a major reason why Victoria has been the base for many large industries. Should we continue to dig this low grade coal up? Do the ends justify the means?
proftournesol Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Saxon Hall said: Scott Morrison was waving a lump of coal around in the Parliament a couple of days ago. He was shouting across the chamber that "The ALP hates coal" That is how political and juvenile the debate has become. You cannot get a rational debate going about the subject of renewable energy sources and the power industry without stunts like this. And then you hear self interested groups talking about "Clean Coal" as if such a thing already exists. Example Victoria has hundreds of years worth of brown coal in the ground It is highly inefficient due to its high moisture content and requires special treatment before it can be burnt. BUT it is available in vast quantities. It also puts vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. It is the backbone of Victoria's Base Load Electricity and has been since early last century. This type of reliable electricity supply is vital to industry and is a major reason why Victoria has been the base for many large industries. Should we continue to dig this low grade coal up? Do the ends justify the means? His point was somewhat undermined by a pregnant Kellie O'Dwyer who refused to touch the lump of coal when another COAL-ition member tried to pass it to her. Whilst his mates were chuckling at his extreme wit in being able to bring a lump of coal into the air conditioned Parliament, in the real world outside there were people being taken to hospital with heat exhaustion. My what a witty man ScoMo is, a real man of the people
proftournesol Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, al said: Great way to encourage industry to Australia isn't it welcome to the land with not enough power to make sure you can keep your lights on! the major outage and failure at alcoa with all their melt pots freezing with no power to keep them molten is testament to just how mis managed the situation is !!! The market has a solution to this... it's to increase the price of power. Long live the market
proftournesol Posted February 9, 2017 Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Hergest said: This is a truly appalling situation. A bit more detail here in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/nsw-power-shortage-warning-after-revelation-sa-blackouts-forecast-hours-beforehand Of course the News Corpse content is behind a firewall so I haven't read it but I bet that the world's largest alternative news network reported the problem as being a renewable energy problem in its entirety.
proftournesol Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 Talk of a new coal fired power station renaissance in Australia is fantasy. The market knows this, the politicians know this but pretend that it isn't true. News Corpse knows it but pretends that it isn't true. Wind power is now cheaper than coal generated power. The COAL-ition pretends that it wants cheaper power for consumers but wants to build uneconomic coal power stations that will only be profitable if the Government guarantees a minimum floor price above that generated by renewables. Quote Silverton windfarm's output will be equal to taking 192,000 cars off the road Once it’s completed in 2018, the NSW site will produce enough electricity to power 137,000 houses Dyani Lewis After years in planning, construction on the Silverton windfarm in western New South Wales is finally set to begin after the sale of the project from AGL to its Powering Australian Renewables Fund (PARF). The deal will see AGL pay just $65 a megawatt hour for the first five years of the windfarm’s operation, effectively undercutting current prices for coal-generated electricity. “It’s a very low price, which demonstrates the amazing innovation and cost curve that renewable energy is on,” says Alicia Webb, director of large-scale energy at the Clean Energy Council, the clean energy industry’s peak body. A joint venture between GE and the civil engineering construction company Catconwill see 58 GE wind turbines installed in the Barrier Ranges, 5km north of the town of Silverton and 25km north-west of Broken Hill. The 3.4MW turbines will be the largest in Australia, with rotor blades spanning 130 metres sitting atop 110-metre towers. “The larger wind turbine rotors provide an increased area to better capture the lower wind speeds and generate more energy,” says Adam Mackett, AGL Silverton’s wind farm project manager. The 200MW capacity windfarm – the sixth largest in Australia – will cost $450m to build, generate about 150 local jobs during construction and should be fully operational by mid-2018. With a capacity factor of 44.5% – at the high end for onshore windfarms – and an energy conversion guarantee built into the GE-CATCON contract, it is expected to generate 780,000MW hours of electricity a year. That’s enough to power 137,000 Australian homes and is equivalent to taking 192,000 cars off the road. The guarantee “is a key commercial feature of the contract that was well received by the financiers”, says Mackett. Extensive wind turbine data will be used to track performance against the guarantee. Renewable energy produced by the Silverton windfarm will be fed into the national energy market (NEM), which supplies electricity to Queensland, NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. Less than 13% of the NEM’s electricity is generated from renewables now. The Silverton windfarm – acquired by PARF for $36m – is the first project to be built from scratch by the fund. AGL established PARF in early 2016 as a way to attract investment for renewable energy projects that will help it meet its obligations under Australia’s renewable energy target. PARF acquired AGL’s 102MW Nyngan and 53MW Broken Hill solar plants as seed assets in November 2016 and will probably acquire AGL’s proposed 350MW windfarm at Coopers Gap, 180km north-west of Brisbane. “The momentum we’re experiencing with PARF is pleasing and proves that investor support exists for large-scale renewables development. However, further comprehensive policy changes are required to facilitate Australia’s transition to a low-carbon economy,” says AGL’s managing director and chief executive, Andy Vesey, in a statement. The fund’s goal is to invest $2bn to 3bn in 1,000MW of large-scale renewable energy projects. As well as AGL’s contribution of $200m, the investment fund QICis providing $800m to PARF on behalf of the Future Fund and clients investing in QIC’s global infrastructure fund. The balance will comprise debt raised on a project-to-project basis. Silverton will contribute about 2.4% to Australia’s renewable energy target. The target is to generate 33,000 gigawatt hours of electricity a year from large-scale renewable energy projects by 2020, enough electricity to power about five million houses and meet about 23.5% of Australia’s electricity needs. In May 2016, the clean energy regulator reported that Australia needed to build 6,000MW of renewable energy capacity – in addition to the 13,652MW already in the system – to meet the target, which was cut from 41,000 gigawatt hours in 2015after a 15-month review. Webb says the lengthy review and the short policy time frame for the target have made attracting investment for renewable energy projects difficult. “[PARF is] stepping in to bridge the gap in an environment where there’s not a lot of long term certainty,” she says. Nonetheless, she is confident the 2020 target can be met, thanks to technological advances in the industry. Whereas typical wind turbines a decade ago generated just 1.5MW a turbine, newer models generate upwards of 3MW. “The target is continually getting easier to meet as time goes on, even though our deadline is getting closer,” she says. State-based renewable energy targets and the lowering cost of renewable energy are also encouraging signs that the 2020 target will be met, says Webb. However, she argues that an updated policy taking into account greenhouse gas emissions targets is needed. “We’ve been saying for a long time now that Australia badly needs some sort of aligned energy and emissions policy that goes beyond 2020 and we await its announcement,” she says. Australia’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement is to reduce emissions to 26–28% of 2005 levels by 2030. But greenhouse gas emissions data released by the government in late 2016 forecast that Australia will miss that target. 1
Darren69 Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) One imagines a lot of the cost installing new wind farms will be the NIMBY payouts. They sort of change the look of a place, as well as the sound if you are close enough. Edited February 10, 2017 by Darren69
joz Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 In vic we still have Loy Yang which is a brown coal burning thermal power plant, I wonder when that will close ? Yep imo we need renewable energy but we can't rely on it 24/7. 365 days a year. believe it or not there are times when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow . As a surfer and sailor of old I spent checking the wind more than most I can can say if we couldn't sail it would be a fair call that there wouldn't be power generated that day. Not sure if it's still the case but for wind turbines to work the wind has to be between not to low or too high. Apparently yesterday it was to windy for wind farm near Ararat,while SA was having a brown out and while part of outer Melb was out on a 37c day.
joz Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Darren69 said: One imagines a lot of the cost installing new wind farms will be the NIMBY payouts. They sort of change the look of a place, as well as the sound if you are close enough. Theyd kill the noise floor of your suburb wouldn't they. 1
proftournesol Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, joz said: In vic we still have Loy Yang which is a brown coal burning thermal power plant, I wonder when that will close ? Yep imo we need renewable energy but we can't rely on it 24/7. 365 days a year. believe it or not there are times when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow . As a surfer and sailor of old I spent checking the wind more than most I can can say if we couldn't sail it would be a fair call that there wouldn't be power generated that day. Not sure if it's still the case but for wind turbines to work the wind has to be between not to low or too high. Apparently yesterday it was to windy for wind farm near Ararat,while SA was having a brown out and while part of outer Melb was out on a 37c day. The State Governments and Federal Government have allowed $millions of tax deductible gold plating to the grid to improve the grid for coal fired power distribution and now we'll have to spend $millions again to adapt it for renewable distribution. As you say individual wind farms aren't always operational but it's always windy somewhere, same with PV. CST plants are now reaching operational status and are being rolled out in Spain. Battery storage is going to follow Moore's Law as far as pricing goes. What is most likely is that we will get a highly interconnected system with multiple generation sources and multiple storage site with lots of local grids. Of course we should have already started down this path but our energy policy is to pass lumps of coal around for show and tell in Parliament. Personally, I'm increasing my rooftop PV and installing a Powerwall.
proftournesol Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 And from the CEFC today... Quote CEFC warns against risky investment in 'clean coal' technology Federal government’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation says coal ‘seriously challenged’ as a commercial investment Paul Karp The Clean Energy Finance Corporation has said it is “very unlikely” it would invest in new coal-fired generators and poured cold water on the federal government’s push to support “clean coal” technology. The CEFC’s hostile approach to the sustainability and commercial viability of new coal plants means the government will have to change CEFC’s investment rules or directly subsidise new coal plants if it wants to support them. In recent weeks the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, has advocated building new coal power stations, including by giving government subsidies. The resources and Northern Australia minister, Matt Canavan, has flagged using the government’s $5bn northern Australia infrastructure fund to provide a subsidy. Federal ministers have suggested that ultra super critical coal power stations, which more efficiently generate steam to create power, should be considered a clean technology because they generate up to 30% less emissions than older coal plants. On Friday in Canberra the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young asked the CEFC at the Senate committee examining the resilience of electricity infrastructure if it would fund new coal-fired power plants. Oliver Yates, its chief executive, said it was required to operate “sustainably and commercially”. “To be honest in a market of such volatility, it would be very difficult to find a private operator or commercial investor investing in coal-fired power stations in the Australian market today,” he said. “We, like a commercial investor, are very unlikely to find circumstances in which that would be an appropriate investment to expose taxpayers to.” Yates said that if coal power stations could generate electricity creating 50% fewer emissions than electricity currently in the grid without carbon capture and storage such an investment would technically fit into the CEFC’s rules. But he said coal was “seriously challenged” as a commercial investment because the price of renewables was declining so there was “no point” building ultra super critical coal stations that were likely to provide electricity at a higher price. Yates said unless ultra super critical coal plants could be built such that they generated much lower emissions “it’s not really a technology which would be likely to have a long-term path”. He concluded by saying he would not recommend investment in coal power plants, which he described as “very risky” for taxpayers. Hanson-Young, the committee chair, told a press conference the CEFC’s evidence showed clean coal was “a unicorn dream ... that doesn’t stack up”. She said it was “lunacy” to invest in coal and the government should be upfront about what a subsidy to build coal stations would cost. On Friday the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, told FiveAA Radio in Adelaide that Australia should have “a technology-agnostic and all-of-the-above approach to energy policy”. “We need to have energy, electricity that is affordable, that is reliable – you know what unreliable energy is like in South Australia – and of course we meet our emission reduction obligations,” he said, referring to blackouts in the past two days due to a nationwide heatwave. Asked whether turning the second Pelican Point gas generator on could have averted outages, Turnbull said gas can provide a backup but is “very expensive”. He suggested pumped hydro technology could avoid outages by using power from wind or coal power plants created off-peak to pump water uphill to generate hydroelectric power on peak. Turnbull accused the South Australian government of being “lazy” for not developing an electricity plan to deal with its high mix of renewable energy and planning for the intermittency of wind power. He said the other failure in the energy market was “the failure to recognise that if you restrict the access to and supply of gas, the price of gas will go up”. He blamed policies such as Victoria’s ban on gas exploration which he said prohibited not only coal seam gas but also conventional onshore gas.
proftournesol Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 ...and again from The Guardian. We should be proud that the market is working so well for the producers, after all we are reassured over and over that the market can never be wrong Quote Earlier this week Bruce Mountain, an energy economics consultant at CME, said the underlying cause of the SA blackout on Wednesday was the same as those behind what happened in July last year, when low supply led to massive spikes in wholesale electricity prices. “When the renewables are not operating flat out or making enough electricity, the fossil fuel generators have the market to themselves. And as we know from studies that I’ve done from 2008 onwards they can and do corner the market,” Mountain said. After the July price spikes, Mountain’s analysis showed electricity generators were withholding supply in order to push up prices. “This is just classical market cornering,” he said. “If you decrease your output by half but as a consequence increase your price by a factor of ten, you’re better off decreasing your output.
MusicOne Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 If State governments had some balls, they'd go ahead with the planing and building of clean coal technology power stations and return Australia to being one of the cheapest suppliers of electricity in the world. All of this ideological nonsense about renewables, is just so much hot air...excuse the pun.
proftournesol Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, MusicOne said: If State governments had some balls, they'd go ahead with the planing and building of clean coal technology power stations and return Australia to being one of the cheapest suppliers of electricity in the world. All of this ideological nonsense about renewables, is just so much hot air...excuse the pun. Well if they do they'll either have to change the terms of reference for the CEFC to allow it to invest in speculative uneconomic technology that is unlikely to ever work or fund it themselves. In any case the Government will either have to run it themselves or guarantee a minimum floor price for purchased power to allow a private operator to be profitable. Of course that'll mean a guaranteed long-term increase in power prices. Is that OK?
MusicOne Posted February 10, 2017 Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, proftournesol said: Well if they do they'll either have to change the terms of reference for the CEFC to allow it to invest in speculative uneconomic technology that is unlikely to ever work or fund it themselves. In any case the Government will either have to run it themselves or guarantee a minimum floor price for purchased power to allow a private operator to be profitable. Of course that'll mean a guaranteed long-term increase in power prices. Is that OK? Prof, that's a lot of tosh and you know it.
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