Both formats will coast along I reckon. NZ will see more local discs available for BD due to sony's marketing muscle, but HD-DVD fans will buy from Amazon as I have. Universal players with decent DAc's will arrive towards spring and then the war will be moot till devices like i TV take off... our snail like broadband permitting.
NZ and Australia will be quite different to the states, mainly due to the people in charge of rolling out HD-DVD here backing both Pioneer and Tosh, surely the pretty sister pioneer which has a blu ray player will get the nod over it's sibling HD-DVD.
However the picture,sound and menu structure and esp. U Control of the HD - DVD discs I have had a chance to view make it a better choice for me at present, at least for discs, don't have a player at home yet. Borrow my mates.
Just a gut feeling, absolutely no science