BribieG Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Happened across this: http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=365&tag=nl.e550 Just one blogger's opinion of course but interesting reading. I'm old enough to remember the original (and excellent) Philips Laser Disc and of course Betamax so this article hits a nerve with me.
Basil1503559642 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 (edited) Hi A lot of similar themed articles seem to be popping up but when you have Sony(think the propping up of MD) and Matsushita plus all the major Movie Studios backing BD , it will(IMPO) be the major HD Format in the short to medium term. I personally doubt it will replace DVD thou,its too well entrenched in the general publics mind like VCR was for 20 Years. I also feel we are heading to solid state type technology for HD storeage but when is the big question,the present economic downturn might give BD a few extra Years of life. Just a few thoughts. Laser TV has just been launched in the US,this is what Sony was supposed to be working on in the 1990's. Mitsubishi Laser TV. Edited October 31, 2008 by Basil
ELK007 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Interesting article, but pure speculation! Sony are definately giving it a fair go now, with full featured players at bargin prices (S350 & S550). But is it a case of too little too late! We'll wait and see! I think the blu ray movie prices are what really need to fall substantially to make a real impact on adoption of the format!
HTPCFreak Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Too much money is invested in Blu-ray for Sony and others to just give it up. But I did say the same thing about HD DVD and Toshiba ... I think the format itself has to evolve a bit to stay competitive, and it wouldn't be too hard to do it either because I think the technology is already here. One idea would be to integrate Blu-ray and a movie download service into one machine, using BD-Live technology and internal/external storage. Imagine a Blu-ray player/recorder that uses BD-Live to provide an interface to purchase and download movies, with the movies being stored on an internal HDD (or connection to an external storage device), and the same player also capable of making managed copies of Blu-ray movies for disc-less playback. They can encrypt the crap out of stuff stored on the HDD, and with an Internet connection, even authorisation type DRM can be deployed to prevent you making copies of a friend's movies (this should all be fairly transparent to the end user though, so as long as you're behaving sensibly in regards to copyright, you shouldn't have to worry too much about DRM). Add in UPnP streaming support, and you've got a machine that will be the hub of the home theatre.
jgh Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 It is an interesting article and I think there are a lot of people out there who do believe that the manufacturers and licencers of both players and discs are simply trying to price gouge rather than nuture a developing market. I'm an enthusiast and will embrace blu ray because I do see and hear the improvements, but they are not stellar improvements from the upscaled DVD experience (IMO). We keep hearing about the video streaming, hard disc goliath that is coming to swamp blu ray, and I'm sure that at some point it will be here, but I believe there are still a lot of impediments to it becoming the mass market choice - not least of which is the availability and cost of broadband capabilities to make this a mass market option. This is a great concept but I believe it will take a long time to become a commercial reality, even at the speed technology moves. As a very small example, I worked for Oracle in the late eighties and at that time Larry Ellison was spruiking the VOD model - it is only in recent times that this has really become an option (as far as I am aware companies such as Foxtel have now only just started offering this service in Australia) and this is almost 20 years after it was being touted. I also believe there is a large population out there that are still not really technically savvy, and don't want to be, and until we get some real generational changes people will still want the convenience and comfort of putting a disc (whether blu ray or DVD) into a player. So I think blu ray will eventually take over (I hope so anyway given I'll be investing in purchases) Just my 2c anyway
The_Preacher1973 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Happened across this:http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=365&tag=nl.e550 Just one blogger's opinion of course but interesting reading. I'm old enough to remember the original (and excellent) Philips Laser Disc and of course Betamax so this article hits a nerve with me. Hmm. From the AVS Bd Sales thread: The first 3 weeks of the 4th quarter are now the three best weeks Blu-ray has done ever in revenues. The last week was even better than the week before and and just below Ironman's first week in both Blu-ray overall revenues and percentage of market share. Blu-ray's revenues actually increased more last week ($3.57 M) more than DVDs revenues did ($3.31M) from week to week. For the last three weeks Blu-ray revenues have been 11.40% - 13.86% - 18.59% of DVDs revenues. YTD sales are up 320% over last year. Yep, seems to dying to me...
the_wonderchild Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 My dad stumbled across this yesterday and printed out a copy for me which he brought home. I read the first few sentences of it, but it seemed same ol' story to me, so i stopped reading it.
quijibo Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 wishful thinking by some I imgaine. besides having a terrible name there isn't that much against it right now. bluray will only grow until we see 100+Gb solid state memory cards for a couple of bucks each.
ajm1503559545 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 @Preacher, isn't this largely based on one title though? Dead is perhaps too strong a word for it but I don't think anyone still believes that Blu-ray is the "next big thing" to the extent that DVD was. And it just might be that something cheaper to make and cheaper to buy leapfrogs it in a couple of years - but I would at least like to see that something before the BD coffin get's put in the ground by bloggers
hazzad Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 These theories are cropping up again now becuase of the XBox360/netflix HD ofering that will appear next month when the next xbox dashboard update rolls out. Many people are seeing that as the bluray killer which is bollocks. Only really relates to US users and those who use Netflix and have a Gold live account. The model has a long way to go before it will appear in other countries due to various reasons, including broadband infrastructure and viability of provding a on demand service.
Jeffie1503561482 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 do those sales charts ever show UNITS not REVENUE? That would be more interesting...
reags Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 very interesting read, and I guess with the current economic crisis fluctuating day to day, it could swing eitherway....time will tell.
BribieG Posted October 31, 2008 Author Posted October 31, 2008 I suppose for the average Australian punter on a normal ADSL connection with a massively generous 2 gig a month from the likes of Optus, the Streaming or downloadable movie is in the same category as the Cashless Society, the Paperless Office or no child living in poverty by 1990
The_Preacher1973 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 @Preacher, isn't this largely based on one title though?Dead is perhaps too strong a word for it but I don't think anyone still believes that Blu-ray is the "next big thing" to the extent that DVD was. And it just might be that something cheaper to make and cheaper to buy leapfrogs it in a couple of years - but I would at least like to see that something before the BD coffin get's put in the ground by bloggers No. It's 2 titles. (Indiana Jones did fairly good business on BD). This week may see a bit of a drop off but I believe the figures the week after will have "Hulk" in them so that should help as well. From memory the releases of note so far in Q4 have been: 1. Iron Man 2. - 3. Indiana Jones 4. z- 5. Hulk. And Dark Knight must be coming pretty soon after that. But still, it's been hovering around 8% for the last few months. 4% is pretty old news.And BD has had big releases beofer yet these percentage are higher than before. Oh, and those titles were released on DVD as well so it's not like BD had an unfair advantage. Still, it will be interesting to see how long BD can sustain +10%.
The_Preacher1973 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 do those sales charts ever show UNITS not REVENUE? That would be more interesting... Why? The studios are in this to make money. Unit sales comparisons are available for the Top 20 seler of each category. Last week BD had 11% of sales by volume in the Top 20.
ajm1503559545 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Why? The studios are in this to make money.Unit sales comparisons are available for the Top 20 seler of each category. Last week BD had 11% of sales by volume in the Top 20. Well for one, it would give some idea how miniscule the customer base for BD actually is. Personally I would love to know how many (or few ) titles have to sell to be #1.
DrP Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 bluray will only grow until we see 100+Gb solid state memory cards for a couple of bucks each. In terms of movie rental (rather than downloads), imagine no longer needing shelves of sleeves, no longer needing to keep 100 copies of a movie, no longer having to fix the discs after the customer scratches them. The customer just walks in with his/her USB keyring/flash drive, orders the movie, plugs in flash drive and 1 minute later its been downloaded to and now they can wander off and watch it. DRM'd of course.
AndrewW Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 For the last three weeks Blu-ray revenues have been 11.40% - 13.86% - 18.59% of DVDs revenues. Lies, damn lies and statistics. Are those figures for all BDs and all DVDs sold in the period, or only the top 10/20? Because unless it is total sales then it doesn't really mean much.
DrP Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Blu-ray's revenues actually increased more last week ($3.57 M) more than DVDs revenues did ($3.31M) from week to week. For the last three weeks Blu-ray revenues have been 11.40% - 13.86% - 18.59% of DVDs revenues. Just an observation... its always easy to grow a small base, its hard to grow a large base. From what I've seen BD disks rent / sell for significantly more than DVDs do so that would skew the figures if attempts to link raw dollars to units sold / rented are made.
ajm1503559545 Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Lies, damn lies and statistics.Are those figures for all BDs and all DVDs sold in the period, or only the top 10/20? Because unless it is total sales then it doesn't really mean much. Spot on, which is why the unit sales would hold some relevance I would have thought. It would be interesting to compare the unit sales for Iron Man (BD sv SD) to get some idea of the relative size of the pie. I do sometimes wonder if cherry picking the numbers might be a slightly generous way to present the situation. But really, who knows?
Tweet Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 (edited) Actually, I think there is room for one more video format that can be provided for in the future using Blu-ray technology that even Toshiba might play a part in. A 'universal' player that incorporates a USB 2 port for DVD and HD portable downloads, an optical drive that supports DVD, Blu-ray, and CinemaScope (2.35 :1 ). The pixel difference between a 1920 x 1080p 16:9 image and a full sized 2.35:1 (2538 x 1080p) image is 667,440 pixels or approximately an increase of 32%. Increasing the rotational speed of the disc by 32% would allow for the necessary 8.91MB/s to accommodate 2538 x 1080p, adding a triple layer to a blu-ray disc would provide extra capacity if needed. Most CinemaScope movies would fit on a 50Gig Blu-ray disc, otherwise a holographic disc system could be employed. For portable downloads using a typical 'Passport' drive ( HD drive) write speeds are average 25 to 30 MB/sec so there is no problems there, even capacities are high, 320 Gig for example. Providing for a future format apart from the now 16:9 Blu-ray format ( and its black bars with 2.35:1 movies) would give panel, projector, an optical disc player manufacturers something to unify with in the next few years. Finally getting rid of those black bars would be a welcome outcome along with the increased resolution. Of course screen manufacturers would need to widen the displays by another 32% but then that's a new market for them to exploit. C.M Edited October 31, 2008 by Tweet
hazzad Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Actually, I think there is room for one more video format that can be provided for in the future using Blu-ray technology that even Toshiba might play a part in.A 'universal' player that incorporates a USB 2 port for DVD and HD portable downloads, an optical drive that supports DVD, Blu-ray, and CinemaScope (2.35 :1 ). The pixel difference between a 1920 x 1080p 16:9 image and a full sized 2.35:1 (2538 x 1080p) image is 667,440 pixels or approximately an increase of 32%. Increasing the rotational speed of the disc by 32% would allow for the necessary 8.91MB/s to accommodate 2538 x 1080p, adding a triple layer to a blu-ray disc would provide extra capacity if needed. Most CinemaScope movies would fit on a 50Gig Blu-ray disc, otherwise a holographic disc system could be employed. For portable downloads using a typical 'Passport' drive ( HD drive) write speeds are average 25 to 30 MB/sec so there is no problems there, even capacities are high, 320 Gig for example. Providing for a future format apart from the now 16:9 Blu-ray format ( and its black bars with 2.35:1 movies) would give panel, projector, an optical disc player manufacturers something to unify with in the next few years. Finally getting rid of those black bars would be a welcome outcome along with the increased resolution. Of course screen manufacturers would need to widen the displays by another 32% but then that's a new market for them to exploit. C.M But the screens dont exist to support anothing over 1920 x1080p. Why would any manufacturer little lone consumer bother with such a small improvemnt. Bluray as it is seems to already be a hard sell. Cant seeing it happening myself. If we can achieve 1080p via VOD on demand that would be a good step. Even better if it supoprted HD audio but that would be iffy.
groovem Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Bill Hunt from The Digital Bits has an interesting editorial on this subject. http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents
Chill Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 AJM, DrP and Andrew all the facts you need to make and intelligent decision are here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread....72&page=144 as already posted in the long running Nielsen Numbers Thread make what you will, but hardly cherry picking For me it shows solid growth and real potential as for Blu Ray being dead, the guy is a fool and clearly has a grudge. as for BD ever being as big as DVD, no, but we all understand it has no need to be.
jgh Posted October 31, 2008 Posted October 31, 2008 Bill Hunt from The Digital Bits has an interesting editorial on this subject.http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents Really good find - a totally different perspective
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