Toshiba Rejects Blu-ray Victory Claim

[Skid_MacMarx]

Toshiba rejects Blu-ray victory claim

19 March 2007 21:31 by Dela

Toshiba rejects Blu-ray victory claimToshiba has rejected claims from the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) that Blu-ray is winning the format war. Olivier Van Wynendaele, Deputy General manager of HD DVD at Toshiba Ltd, accused the group of using propaganda in their press releases and at CeBIT in Germany this year. The BDA and news sources have been reporting that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD by a ratio of 3:1 in the U.S., which Van Wynendaele strongly denies.

He told Tech.co.uk that the reason for the sudden surge in Blu-ray figures was due to new owners of the PlayStation 3 console redeeming Blu-ray movie vouchers given to them by Sony. The vouchers can be exchanged at retail stores and Van Wynendaele said this has distorted the genuine sales figures.

He then went on to say that over 200,000 HD DVD stand-alone players were sold in the United States, compared to 30,000 stand-alone Blu-ray players, and criticized the BDA for attempting to count all PS3s as Blu-ray player sales when they have no proof that customers are using them for anything other than games or are interested in buying any Blu-ray movies at all.

He then made a very valid point; with high def player sales figures being only 1% of regular DVD player sales in the U.S., it is impossible for either format to declare victory at such an early stage. He did say, however, that HD DVD still beats Blu-ray hands down in terms of affordability and threatened that Toshiba would undercut any lower priced Blu-ray players with even lower prices.

Van Wynendaele went on to point out how stand-alone HD DVD players cost less than Blu-ray players, and admitted that even the HD DVD player prices are still too high for consumers.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/9033.cfm

As far as I'm concerned, the claim by the chairman of the European Blu-ray Disc Association, Frank Simonis, is just marketing hype.

http://www.about-electronics.eu/2007/03/19...ion-optimistic/

[Hydrology]

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/9033.cfm

As far as I'm concerned, the claim by the chairman of the European Blu-ray Disc Association, Frank Simonis, is just marketing hype.

http://www.about-electronics.eu/2007/03/19...ion-optimistic/

Damn straight it is!

[momaw]

more words from HD DVD Group on the matter:

If you look at some of the press releases flying around lately, you'd think that HD DVD is ready to pack up our tent and go home. Suffice to say, we're not goin' anywhere.

But what about the Nielsen numbers you might ask? What about the "independent" research reports, the subjective customer surveys and the fact that it's the Chinese Year of Pig? What does it all mean?

It's all in how you look at the data. And while you might not believe our marketing spin over someone else's, here's our take on the numbers:

Right now, overall movie sales to date for each format are roughly equal. Some see that as Blu-ray catching up and "winning." But look a bit farther and you will see that Blu-ray has a 5:1 hardware ratio over HD DVD right now due to sales of the PlayStation 3. That means five times as many players on the market. But if that's the case, why aren't their movie sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

We'll let you speculate on that one. In fact, it's the opposite - every HD DVD owner out there is buying five times as many movies per player. That's huge! We'll take that kind of devoted consumer any day.

Yes, we know - our anecdotes versus theirs. But the real message here is don't believe everything you read – try it out on your own. Kick the tires. Check the prices. See if we're offering what we say we are. And as always, you can go to www.TheLookAndSoundOfPerfect.com for the latest news and updates.

Further, here are some comments from Amir of Microsoft's HD DVD division when asked about the "war"

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meatpopsicle

Amir,

Which do you personally feel will likely happen first, given your own personal analysis?

This is the kind of question which can generate hundreds of posts and debates . I will take a shot at it since you asked but I am sure the mods will keep a sharp eye on folks going crazy on it.

Quote:

- The war is dragged on long enough that all studios go neutral. (If so, how long do you feel the war would have to continue for it to happen?)

This is the most likely scenario of the two you list.

I believe at some point "HD DVD" and "BD" will simply become "features" of DVD players. People won't even think about them in the context of a format war or a conscious decision to enter one. They will be buying some sub $99 DVD player, which happens to play HD DVD. Enough of them get sold and the format will be there for good. Consumer will then be free to buy DVDs or HD DVDs and not lose anything one way or the other. I assume BD folks have the same plan (although probably reluctantly ).

Same thing happened with DVD-A/SACD to some extent although the failing there was that interest in that sort of fidelity improvement was nearly non-existent and it came at a time of great change in music business with interest shifting from quality to "access" and convenience. Without that, they would be standard today and we would be living with them for our music enjoyment.

It is possible that both BD and HD DVD will become standard features of DVD players. The hurdle for such universal players is a bit higher (due to higher optical costs which cannot be reduces easily to such low cost thresholds) but it is not too far away from above reality.

Once we hit this inflection point, the concept of format war kind of loses steam and we will simply be throttled by the demand for HD content than anything else. That future is not too far down the road btw. State of electronic integration is so much more advanced now than any other time in history. We are also lucky that the disc size is the same, making these combination products seem like a nature thing to happen as far as general consumers are concerned.

IPR (patent fee) concerns are somewhat a barrier but in a volume business, new solutions would have be devised to avoid paying double and triple for the same patent when the application is similar in each instant (i.e. playing a VC-1 or MPEG-2 movie). And experiences are exclusive. (i.e. you play either DVD or HD DVD/BD, so why pay for both patents at the same time?)

Even now, the whole notion of “war” is overblown in my opinion. We have a very effective rental system which shields people from its effect which did not exist in previous “wars.” And we have a drive toward cheap hardware which likewise lessons the level of “harm” from picking the “wrong” format. The war is a boon to press and to folks who think one side should be shut down but other than that, it is not nearly as significant. Certainly from our point of view, we don’t worry a bit about BD format hanging around forever. But we digress .

Quote:

- One format wins, the other is abandoned.

Since no one is blinking on either side, this does not seem likely right now. Something unpredictable could happen of course but if we deal with the facts as we know it, this scenario cannot be supported as having high likelihood.

Quote:

- Something else you can maybe expound on?

A few other alternatives come to mind:

* Both formats grow to certain percentage of DVD sales and then get stuck there (say growing from current 0.5% to 20 or 25%). Title pricing will be most likely the reason for this as hardware cost will not be a factor per my hypothesis above. If one assumes price pressure will continue on current DVD titles, then pricing HD media where current DVDs are will be defensible. But higher premiums would keep the market from growing at some point. Then again, CDs did push up the ASP (average selling price) over LPs so maybe I am wrong . But I think consumers saw more value in that transition than here.

* Both grow so slowly as to compete with digital downloads as far as revenues/volume is concerned and given the cache of the former, lose steam. I don't think this is a likely outcome (in the next five years anyway) but it remains a distinct concern. HD video and interactivity is nice. How nice to average person, remains to be seen. We can guard against this outcome by making sure it is not an “either or” choice. Things like managed copy, digital downloads to enhance titles, etc., allow us to bridge the gap between the two means of delivery. But if folks stay too married to strict physical goods and not innovate, times may pass them by.

Now you know why are blazing the trail on interactivity for HD DVD . We feel that a “modern” optical format will have quite a strong staying power. A stale one that forces the old DVD business on you, less so.

So how did I do?

__________________

Amir

Microsoft (HD DVD insider)

VC-1 video codec insider in BD/HD DVD

[IanD1503559705]

Then again, have you noticed how pathetically HD-DVD is being marketed?

I would have thought the HD-DVD addon for the xbox360 would have received some pre-release hype, but I have seen nothing.

Even the adverts for the addon at the major retail chains only appeared about 7 days before the release, are tiny in comparison to the PS3 advert and don't say very much: most adverts don't even show the full bundle being sold. For example, the Myers catalogue just shows the drive, close to RRP and date in tiny print, yet I expect they are selling the bundle with King Kong and controller. It's all been downplayed tragically, yet adds HD-DVD capability to the xbox360 (which I think is a major addition to functionality).

[sedders]

this whole war was just created by microsoft to muddy the waters enough to make way for their movie downloads. As soon as they are ready to launch, they will dump toshiba and take on blu-ray, hddvd, dvd and itunes. its just good business strategy and we are all being played

[momaw]

Then again, have you noticed how pathetically HD-DVD is being marketed?

I would have thought the HD-DVD addon for the xbox360 would have received some pre-release hype, but I have seen nothing.

Even the adverts for the addon at the major retail chains only appeared about 7 days before the release, are tiny in comparison to the PS3 advert and don't say very much: most adverts don't even show the full bundle being sold. For example, the Myers catalogue just shows the drive, close to RRP and date in tiny print, yet I expect they are selling the bundle with King Kong and controller. It's all been downplayed tragically, yet adds HD-DVD capability to the xbox360 (which I think is a major addition to functionality).

In defence, if you were MS and knew that there were bugger all HD DVD's available here, and pretty much none on store shelves, would you be pushing the add-on to your loyal customers?

[Trigg]

Come 01/04/07, I'm sure wee will notice the Toshiba Marketing Engine Fire up here in Australia!!

[Tweet]

Then again, have you noticed how pathetically HD-DVD is being marketed?

I would have thought the HD-DVD addon for the xbox360 would have received some pre-release hype, but I have seen nothing.

Even the adverts for the addon at the major retail chains only appeared about 7 days before the release, are tiny in comparison to the PS3 advert and don't say very much: most adverts don't even show the full bundle being sold. For example, the Myers catalogue just shows the drive, close to RRP and date in tiny print, yet I expect they are selling the bundle with King Kong and controller. It's all been downplayed tragically, yet adds HD-DVD capability to the xbox360 (which I think is a major addition to functionality).

I would think the retail trade are more pro Blu-ray in their promotions than HD DVD as there is better profit margins to be made from the PS3 than an XBOX 360 add-on. Besides, most advertising is probably prepaid or subsidised.

C.M

[Hydrology]

this whole war was just created by microsoft to muddy the waters enough to make way for their movie downloads. As soon as they are ready to launch, they will dump toshiba and take on blu-ray, hddvd, dvd and itunes. its just good business strategy and we are all being played

Thats right, they created the war. Do you post anything that isnt daft and childish? I was hoping your account was permanently deleted as a result of the hacking. Guess I was hoping too much.

[momaw]

this whole war was just created by microsoft to muddy the waters enough to make way for their movie downloads. As soon as they are ready to launch, they will dump toshiba and take on blu-ray, hddvd, dvd and itunes. its just good business strategy and we are all being played

[Skid_MacMarx]

this whole war was just created by microsoft to muddy the waters enough to make way for their movie downloads. As soon as they are ready to launch, they will dump toshiba and take on blu-ray, hddvd, dvd and itunes. its just good business strategy and we are all being played

I actually find this an interesting subject ie the time frame before we have the choice between optical media and online downloads

amir quoted by momaw:

Both grow so slowly as to compete with digital downloads as far as revenues/volume is concerned and given the cache of the former, lose steam. I don't think this is a likely outcome (in the next five years anyway) but it remains a distinct concern. HD video and interactivity is nice. How nice to average person, remains to be seen. We can guard against this outcome by making sure it is not an “either or” choice. Things like managed copy, digital downloads to enhance titles, etc., allow us to bridge the gap between the two means of delivery. But if folks stay too married to strict physical goods and not innovate, times may pass them by.

I feel its not a matter of "if" but "when"

I don't think it will ever entirely "replace" optical media" but it will certainly be an option.

Digital delivery is the future, according to presenters at the 2007 International Recording Media Assn. here this week, but its current shortcomings, including limited Internet capacity, ensure a longer life for packaged media in both standard- and high-definition.

Adams Media Research chief Tom Adams compared various entertainment sectors between 2006 and 2011, emphasizing that traditional video sell-through and rental will give some ground to rivals but remain popular among consumers. Also, new media (including pay-per-view, video-on-demand and Web downloads) will strengthen but stay small, jumping from 3% to 12%. Video sell-through will slip from 28% to 27%.

“In the short-term, I’m cautious about packaged growth, but we will ramp up when high-def gets to reasonable penetration levels,” said Adams, during a Tuesday panel discussion. “Over the next two years, there will be 15% to 20% penetration levels of high-def households, and we will get back to reasonable growth rates with packaged media.”

'Over the next two years, there will be 15% to 20% penetration levels of high-def households, and we will get back to reasonable growth rates with packaged media.'

Tom Adams, Adams Media Research

Panelist Danny Kaye, executive VP of global research and technology strategy at 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, estimated that by 2011 new media formats would generate $4 billion in revenue -- up from $30 million in 2006 -- with traditional media revenue towering over that at $38.3 billion, up from $33.5 billion in 2006.

Fox is promising to deliver some of the first Web-enabled Blu-ray Disc titles this year. Kaye demonstrated an X-Men: The Last Stand trivia game in which different Blu-ray households can compete against each other. He declined to specify when the bonus feature will be released and on which title.

Experimentation

“Electronic distribution isn’t a big business right now—it’s more about experimentation,” said Kaye. “20th Century Fox will continue to experiment and go where the consumer takes us.”

Even the service that has emerged as the most powerful distributor of digital media, Apple iTunes, still does not reach the masses, IRMA presenters said.

“This is not yet a hit,” said Bruce Leichtman, president of the Leichtman Research Group. “To date, 50 million TV shows and 1.3 million films have been downloaded on iTunes. [in contrast,] Comcast had 1.8 billion video-on-demand sessions in the past year.”

Recent surveys show that 70% of video iPod owners have never downloaded video, added Leichtman.

Revenue small, for now

Also telling, Walt Disney Co.’s projected $25 million in downloads this year is the equivalent of less than one day’s revenue at Disney’s theme parks, said IRMA keynoter Warren Lieberfarb.

During his speech, Lieberfarb illustrated current shortcomings with downloading, most notably the lack of suitable bandwith to deliver quality films to consumers.

Citing Shrek 2 sales of 11 million DVD copies during its first three days in stores in 2004, Lieberfarb noted that “it would require 33 times the data capacity of [today’s] Internet” to distribute the same number of copies digitally in the same period of time. “We need a larger pipeline that is capable of carrying 2 trillion bytes per second. The Internet is not ready to distribute major video releases.”

Up to 15% of downloads need to be retried because of corruption in the data transfer, added Andrew Parker, chief technology officer at peer-to-peer tech firm Cache Logic, during an IRMA session.

However, with bricks-and-mortar powerhouses such as Wal-Mart now offering movie downloads, the entertainment community needs to integrate the digital world into their traditional businesses. IRMA kicked off its conference with the announcement that it was morphing its name to the Content Delivery and Storage Assn. in order to embrace next-generation media members.

“Physical media will feed Hollywood for years,” said Charles Van Horn, IRMA president. “But it’s time for all of us to figure out how to capitalize on complementary online and mobile delivery.”

IRMA sessions were sprinkled with examples of how traditional and new media can co-exist.

“We get carried away in seeing this as competitive,” said Jim Bottoms, president of Understanding & Solutions. “There is some overlap, but there are lots of areas of synergy. A perfect complementary situation is if you miss a few broadcast TV episodes, you can download those that you missed, and if you miss [more like an entire] season, you can go and buy the DVD.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6424668.html

[momaw]

I actually find this an interesting subject ie the time frame before we have the choice between optical meadia and online downloads

amir quoted by momaw:

I feel its not a matter of "if" but "when"

I don't think it will ever entirely "replace" optical media" but it will certainly be an option.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6424668.html

Downloads will definitely shift the market in terms of delivery methods, profits, and DRM issues, but It will be many years, dare I say decades, before it can hope to "replace" physical media.

A good example is the recent "upgrade" to Microsoft's software verification which caught many unregistered users. They offered an "upgrade" package online so that user could purchase a valid user key. While some may see this as a online purchase and download, Microsoft were still legally bound to send every one of these customer a copy of windows in the mail on a disc.

While itunes songs are a dime a dozen, when something is large enough, and costs enough, a physical copy is down right demanded by the customer.

Valve tried it with Half-Life 2 and it nearly killed the franchise.

[Tweet]

Downloads will definitely shift the market in terms of delivery methods, profits, and DRM issues, but It will be many years, dare I say decades, before it can hope to "replace" physical media.

A good example is the recent "upgrade" to Microsoft's software verification which caught many unregistered users. They offered an "upgrade" package online so that user could purchase a valid user key. While some may see this as a online purchase and download, Microsoft were still legally bound to send every one of these customer a copy of windows in the mail on a disc.

While itunes songs are a dime a dozen, when something is large enough, and costs enough, a physical copy is down right demanded by the customer.

Valve tried it with Half-Life 2 and it nearly killed the franchise.

I agree Mo', 'Downloads' are still futuristic and are in a practical sense 'impractical' for most people outside major metropolitan areas here in Australia.

There is nothing like a 51 Gig disc in the hand which can be downloaded from the local video store by simply going there and paying $5 bucks.

Of course one can also download a few packs of crisps and a chocy while chatting up the chick behind the counter, much better than 'a break in the transmission'.

I'll have a disc any day to build the collection.

C.M

[momaw]

I agree Mo', 'Downloads' are still futuristic and are in a practical sense 'impractical' for most people outside major metropolitan areas here in Australia.

There is nothing like a 51 Gig disc in the hand which can be downloaded from the local video store by simply going there and paying $5 bucks.

Of course one can also download a few packs of crisps and a chocy while chatting up the chick behind the counter, much better than 'a break in the transmission'.

I'll have a disc any day to build a collection.

C.M

I was going to comment on you getting ripped off at $5 a pop, but if the girls are spankable, well, that changes everything

There is something to be said for the human contact, no not that you filthy.....well ok, that too

[Skid_MacMarx]

While itunes songs are a dime a dozen, when something is large enough, and costs enough, a physical copy is down right demanded by the customer.

It appears Universal Music prefer the "download" route (unfortunately)... hopefully they'll eventually offer high rez lossless files as an option in the future:

"We have not abandoned quality recordings," said Roberts (president of Universal Classics and Jazz International). "I realize there are issues with downloading that may not live up to people's audiophile standards. We're not doing SACD to the degree we were, but we're always very concerned about quality. We still have our engineers and producers. But we have to be in the download business. You have to be all things to all people, given the marketplace we're in. SACD came along at the same time as the iPod, and now that the legal downloading aspect has clicked, it hasn't helped SACD's future."

Sure. No education, no outreach, no motivation, at least in the US, where SACD has made a far smaller impact than in other countries. Yet while Universal may record its masters at 24-bit/96kHz or better, they have yet to make downloads available as lossless files. A spade is a spade, and until enough people demand the King of Hearts, the spade it shall be.

http://www.stereophile.com/news/031907umg/

[-Bishop-]

I'm glad HD-DVD is saying it how it is...

I think many people are getting all bent out of shape thinking HD-DVD is miles behind in marketing etc, but I personally think they just know the true battle is miles away yet, and they don't want to waste time and money this early in the game.

Blu-Ray made the choice to kind of jump the gun, forced market via the PS3, quite a few early players with really high price tags, marketing and deals with places like JB, all at a stage where interest is low, prices are extreme, and chance of making any money from it even more extreme.

Was it even the guys at Toshiba or HD-DVD saying players are still too expensive, and the market is still too small?, and they are right, what's the point of trying to spend a lot of time an effort this early, when it's clear the real war probably won't start for another year.

I have a feeling HD-DVD will hit hard when it matters, when Sony and it's supporters have spent a fortune building and marketing over priced under featured equipment, HD-DVD will come in swinging, with cheaper and better featured players, cheaper media, and marketing people telling them exactly that.

And if it works, people could quite possibly be using their BD media as drink coasters 6 months later...

[achjimmy]

Come 01/04/07, I'm sure wee will notice the Toshiba Marketing Engine Fire up here in Australia!!

I dont think they have the staff!! If all the job ads posted a couple a weeks ago are a guide, they are very short on staff to launch with.

Jim

[Julian L]

I have a feeling HD-DVD will hit hard when it matters, when Sony and it's supporters have spent a fortune building and marketing over priced under featured equipment, HD-DVD will come in swinging, with cheaper and better featured players, cheaper media, and marketing people telling them exactly that.

And if it works, people could quite possibly be using their BD media as drink coasters 6 months later...

Cheap players are nice and all, but if you can't buy content for the player, what's the point? HD DVD is never going to get beyond a small niche without the full support of at least Disney and one other major studio. People buy DVD players to watch movies, not simply because they're cheap.

[Julian L]

I'm glad HD-DVD is saying it how it is...

Neither HD DVD or Blu-Ray are saying it how it is. They're selling a product and telling the fibs they need to tell. Just because you hate Blu-Ray is no reason to believe everything Toshiba has to say without attaching any critical thought to their statements.

[prh]

Haven't seen this mentioned yet, but in todays SMH there is a nice article about how Toshiba

is ready to re-launch the HD-DVD format on April 1.

(not sure if this link works, though?)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/home-theatre/no...4153041869.html

[OakenShield1]

Neither HD DVD or Blu-Ray are saying it how it is. They're selling a product and telling the fibs they need to tell. Just because you hate Blu-Ray is no reason to believe everything Toshiba has to say without attaching any critical thought to their statements.

Thats a fair call. They are both in it for themselves.

Download of HD media is a long way off IMHO. I personally would much rather have the goods in my hand. Thats why I still buy CD/DVD's instead of downloading them which is possible with the right "Sources". Much smaller sized files than HD make it possible, but not preferable.

Dodgy article PRH - didn't know the playstation 3's were coming with BR Recorders Don't think the writer knows what he's on about.

Be interesting to see how they relaunch HD-DVD to the general public though...

[sulimo]

Of course he would. What else would you expect him to say, even if the writing was on the wall. After all it is essentially a Toshiba format.

[sulimo]

Download of HD media is a long way off IMHO.

1080p certainly. 720p...well its already started and is about to take another big leap forward.

[Skid_MacMarx]

With the launch of PlayStation 3, which has a built-in Blu-ray recorder, just around the corner, general manager of Toshiba's information systems division Mark Whittard said that his company would continue to take on its bitter rival Blu-ray with the relaunch of HD DVD on April 1.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/home-theatre/no...4153041869.html

I hope this is not an April Fool's Day joke.

Have Universal in Australia announced more local releases than this for the relaunch?

It appears from both this article and the announcement by Toshiba above, both formats are in for the long haul

[Chesty]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/home-theatre/no...4153041869.html

I hope this is not an April Fool's Day joke.

Have Universal in Australia announced more local releases than this for the relaunch?

It appears from both this article and the announcement by Toshiba above, both formats are in for the long haul

So the light finally turns on in the HD DVD camp!

They finally realise that they actually need players and software to have any chance of success. They also now realise that they have to market aggresively starting next month. Maybe they should of gotten their launch right in the first place. Isnt the idea of a launch to make people aware of a new product?

Realising that Blu Ray have a local consortium to push the product, they now have started to gather some local members to form one of their own.

HD DVD, i am afraid you are a tad too late and have missed the boat by a considerable margin.