Why Blu-ray Cannot "win"

[momaw]

After nearly a year of the format war as a reality (i.e. machines in the marketplace), slinging matches on both sides, statistics to prove any position you want, I have come to some conclusions.

Before I get into them I will say that both formats offer great picture and sound quality. Neither really have an advantage over the other in these fields despite what some will try and tell you with misdirection such as disc capacity. I bought a HD DVD player first and as a HD DVD owner have felt the "blues" in recent months with a lack of releases and the steady catch-up and recent overtake of BD sales stats. I have also bought a PS3 and quite a number of movies and to be honest quite enjoy the films I have seen. I can understand why PS3 owners who also have an interest in HD Movies think BD is on a winner. Most have never seen the competition though and are living under a cloud of propaganda preventing them from seeing that HD DVD is every bit as good as Blu-ray (and vice versa).

Now I know this is going to be controversial, and I also know many diehards aren't going to read past point 2, but I can only see this war ending in one of two ways. There is no third option.

1) HD DVD wins

2) Neither side wins and both co-exist

Put simply, blu-ray cannot win this war. Period.

For the most part the "war" has been discussed as Toshiba vs Sony. Occasionally the players change a little (like substituting Microsoft for Toshiba). This analysis could not be further from the truth which is why no one really sees the obvious.

The true combatants of this war are The Blu-ray Disc Association (no surprise there) and the DVD forum. The DVD forum has done it's best to stay quiet and they have good reason to do so. They have revenue streams to protect. In a nut shell, the DVD Forum will not let blu-ray win, and they are fully capable of achieving this. DVD has literally been a license to print money for the forum. Every CE wanting to put out a player needs to pay licensing fees. Every player sold pays a royalty. Every DVD title sold on the planet pays a royalty. This is revenue on a scale that the BDA cannot match and wants to capture.

The DVD Forum will do everything in its power to ensure that either HD DVD prevails, or failing that, that the war is dragged on so long that consumers give up on both formats and fail in the mainstream market. HD DVD supporters are smart enough to see this too. Studios like Universal have protected revenues from DVD sales and by supporting the DVD Forum over the BDA they curry future benefits while selling HD DVD like hotcakes to loyal fans. The market is small enough they can trade off any lost BD sales against future benefits. Likewise Microsoft can't lose, they either backed the right format or when HD Disc formats fail, they already have the online distribution network to fill the void.

Studios like Disney and Fox are under the misguided belief that with the BDA, if successful, they will somehow come out better than with the DVD Forum. Unfortunately this won't be the case. They will just end up paying their licensing fees and Royalties to Sony instead. Fox and Disney have a history of this kind of shortsightedness.

As I said, the diehards will argue against this with all their might, but the simple fact is the DVD Forum has the ongoing revenue and clout to drag this war on until consumers are so sick of it they want nothing to do with HD Disc formats. They will bring this war to one of the two conclusions previously stated. If HD DVD wins, they move on from DVD to HD and collect revenues from both. If they force the formats into failure they continue to collect on DVD revenues. They will not give up the revenues they have built and will protect themselves from rival formats trying to muscle in on their future revenue streams. The BDA and Sony simply don't have the resources or clout to take them on and win.

Obviously these are just my opinions, but, after experiencing both formats and closely following the war, it will take more than just clever sophistry to change my mind on this. I too haven't paid that much attention to the DVD forum themselves. I won't make that mistake again. I will continue to buy discs of both formats. They will always be playable until the next big thing comes along, then it's upgrade time again.

[Skid_MacMarx]

and here I thought you were playing "resistance" and in fact you were writing a thesis

[momaw]

Nicely said Mo and pretty much agree If anybody wants me I'll be at the closest fallout shelter :ph34r:

You got room in there for me too? Save a spot for Andrew.

and here I thought you were playing "resistance" and in fact you were writing a thesis

The call of the board.

[AndrewW]

I hadn't really thought of it like that.

That is a very reasoned and sane argument.

Andrew.

[momaw]

Andrew bring the Yammy

I've got a yammy......

[AndrewW]

I've got a yammy......

I'll bring the bourbon

[Highjinx]

Illogical!

8 of the 10 DVD Forum founding companies are BluRay MANUFACTURERS.

Give it a rest mom............ DVD Forum

[momaw]

Illogical!

8 of the 10 DVD Forum founding companies are BluRay MANUFACTURERS.

Give it a rest mom............ DVD Forum

Nice try Highjinx, but it doesn't cut the mustard. Many major companies in competition have major shareholders in common. It doesn't translate into corporate "love"

From your own link

Licenses DVD Format/Logo (through the DVD Format/Logo Licensing Corporation)

this innocuous line sums up the whole war and how it will end.

[Skid_MacMarx]

I'd prefer to discuss games and movies "in hand" than speculate.

I can't say BD or HD-DVD will win, lose or co-exist. so no point arguing about it.

I could say you keep bringing up the same topic momaw all the time. . .are you spending too much time at the AVS forum

I do believe with the in flux of cheaper and cheaper HD displays that HD movies won't be a niche market like say DVD-A and SA-CD.

I suppose you should factor in that BD members are also members of the DVD forum into your argument.

If I was pushed to read the crystal ball, I would agree with the Microsoft gentleman, and suggest both formats will co-exist.

Especially the recent announced release of the Hitachi-LG BD/HD-DVD drive further "solidifies" my belief.

Are you stuck on a level momaw?

[momaw]

I suppose you should factor in that BD members are also members of the DVD forum into your argument.

see post above yours

I do believe with the in flux of cheaper and cheaper HD displays that HD movies won't be a niche market like say DVD-A and SA-CD.

This seems like a valid point, however, in reality, people are buying HD tv's yet quite happily forgoing HD quality cable broadcasts in favour of greater content (this is a particular trend in the US where cable providers were forced to chose between quality and quantity due to bandwidth limitations - quantity won BTW). - yes maybe I have been on AVS too much to know this

While we are happily snapping up High Def capable display devices, it is going to be a number of years (by which time we will probably have moved on from HD DVD and Blu-ray to either content on demand or other solid state mediums) before the general public demands High Def content in numbers high enough to worry content providers.

[betty boop]

Illogical!

8 of the 10 DVD Forum founding companies are BluRay MANUFACTURERS.

Give it a rest mom............ DVD Forum

funny.. theres maybe 3-4 blu-ray player manufacturers I can think off. pioneer, sammy, pana, LG. 8-10 which ones are those ? it woudl be great if they were imported here. would give a bit more choice for the customer than the sad sammy and the expensive pana if lookgin for a blu-ray player.

[Skid_MacMarx]

I must admit .. it sounds a bit like if I don't win, I'll take my bat and ball home...?

The members of the BD Association are major players and like alebonau said there are many complex relations (ie Sony making HD-DVD) ..

personally, I wouldn't dismiss that fact....

who was talking about "love ins"

last time I mention one, Andrew quickly jumped out of the spa

[T800]

They will co-exist for sometime, but Blu-Ray will have far more sales/support than HD DVD unfortunately. Its all about $$$, and if BR continues to steam ahead of HD DVD like in the US, and very likely here, HD DVD will die a very slow death.

The more BR pulls ahead, why would the BR exclusive studios support HD DVD if it is selling less titles of the same format (ie The departed is a good example.)

I've turned to a BR supporter only because the movies i want far outweigh HD DVD, In fact, there is not 1 HD DVD movie on the release schedule i want. BR, there are tonnes.

After being against BR, I really like the format and what it has to offer. I still have over 20 HD DVD's (but no player anymore, since i sold it), but i will definitely get another HD DVD player in due time.

For the moment though, I'm all for BR because it has all the hit movies i want.

[Skid_MacMarx]

funny.. theres maybe 3-4 blu-ray player manufacturers I can think off. pioneer, sammy, pana, LG. 8-10 which ones are those ? it woudl be great if they were imported here. would give a bit more choice for the customer than the sad sammy and the expensive pana if lookgin for a blu-ray player.

Like momaw said: we are a "backwater" and there would be greater significance if one format becomes predominantly more popular in the US. . .especially when the major content producers are Hollywood based.

Its all about $$$, and if BR continues to steam ahead of HD DVD like in the US, and very likely here, HD DVD will die a very slow death.

This Hunt fellow may be right.. it depends how stubborn Universal is?

[momaw]

I must admit .. it sounds a bit like if I don't win, I'll take my bat and ball home...?

Actually Skid, that is precisely it. This is the biggest new revenue stream to emerge in the last decade. They will fight to the death to protect it - even if it means killing off this generation of HD Disc formats and sticking with DVD until the next round.

You know that when you take into account the DVD Forum has a extremely vested interest in either the success of HD DVD or the Failure of Blu-ray, it doesn't take a great leap to see that every single sale of a DVD actually contributes in a very real and tangible way in helping the DVD Forum achieve this goal and topping up the coffers to ensure either of the results I predicted.

One could say that DVD purchases are a notch in the HD DVD win column. Of course it could just as easily fund the death of HD Discs.

They will co-exist for sometime, but Blu-Ray will have far more sales/support than HD DVD unfortunately. Its all about $$$, and if BR continues to steam ahead of HD DVD like in the US, and very likely here, HD DVD will die a very slow death.

The more BR pulls ahead, why would the BR exclusive studios support HD DVD if it is selling less titles of the same format (ie The departed is a good example.)

I've turned to a BR supporter only because the movies i want far outweigh HD DVD, In fact, there is not 1 HD DVD movie on the release schedule i want. BR, there are tonnes.

After being against BR, I really like the format and what it has to offer. I still have over 20 HD DVD's (but no player anymore, since i sold it), but i will definitely get another HD DVD player in due time.

For the moment though, I'm all for BR because it has all the hit movies i want.

I don't dispute any of this, however, HD DVD can hang in there, in a viable format, long enough to turn consumers off both formats entirely if this situation comes to pass. They don't have to be in a winning position to sow descent and confusion amongst the general public and drag blu-ray down into a death spiral with consumer confidence stalling sales while DVD goes from strength to strength. The DVD Forum is in this for the long haul and can afford to kill this generation if it is not going their way.

In regards to Skids comment, Universal isn't being stubborn. In fact they may be the only studio smart enough to see where all this is heading and is picking a winning side, a side that isn't even on the store shelves.

[betty boop]

some intersting comment mom. dvd forum certainly have a lot to protect. wouldnt want ot throw it all away. in a way hd-dvd for them is a toe in the water, showing like they have a viable alternative, but hey theres nothgin to push them to rush over to it.

the blu ray side though probably want very much for the dvd forum to becoem a spent force and will push their format very hard to establish it and turn dvd into old hack. can understand why theyre tryign there hardest to whip up an almighty frenzy and try and get some attention to wards their new format,

[Hydrology]

An excellent read momaw, and one I agree with.

[Skid_MacMarx]

In regards to Skids comment, Universal isn't being stubborn. In fact they may be the only studio smart enough to see where all this is heading and is picking a winning side, a side that isn't even on the store shelves.

Its not my comment, I'm only quoting Mark's mate Mr Hunt

Considering how much has been invested in developing, producing and marketing each format... I can not see either format being "superseded" any time soon because of public indifference or confusion.

And by that time, I'm sure we will all be ready to update once again. .

[elan1503560610]

This "thesis" is well constructed and grounded in solid marketing principles. I applaud this insight through application of game theory to the next gen video format war.

Tomorrow - I enter the fray. HD-DVD shall be my choice.

[Skid_MacMarx]

This "thesis" is well constructed and grounded in solid marketing principles. I applaud this insight through application of game theory to the next gen video format war.

Tomorrow - I enter the fray. HD-DVD shall be my choice.

or it could be a whole lot of fud

[Tweet]

As I have said from the very beginning, the rental market will weigh heavily in the final decision making of most people in determining what format they may adopt.

If the video rental market adopt the THD format then that will be to the benefit of all consumers.

I cannot see the studios losing revenue from those of an opposing format for too long, its just a poor business outcome.

So as I see it the THD format will supersede both HD DVD and Blu-ray to unify both formats as one disc physically.

Once Sony and Co begin producing HD DVD players in order capture that side of the market then will begin the undermining of Blu-ray as a format.

HD DVD will win as a quality product and at an affordable price, so Toshiba needs to keep a tight quality control on its product with regular firmware updates when needed.

Reliability and longevity of performance is the very foundation of a format and this will surely be tested in the years to come.

C.M

[bammac]

In a nut shell, the DVD Forum will not let blu-ray win, and they are fully capable of achieving this.

Just to clarify are you saying that the DVD Forum has more cash reserves to support their chosen format than the blu ray backers?

Or that they are more capable to succeed due to the HD DVD technology partners that can promote it?

[mello yello]

As I have said from the very beginning, the rental market will weigh heavily in the final decision making of most people in determining what format they may adopt.

If the video rental market adopt the THD format then that will be to the benefit of all consumers.

I cannot see the studios losing revenue from those of an opposing format for too long, its just a poor business outcome.

So as I see it the THD format will supersede both HD DVD and Blu-ray to unify both formats as one disc physically.

Once Sony and Co begin producing HD DVD players in order capture that side of the market then will begin the undermining of Blu-ray as a format.

HD DVD will win as a quality product and at an affordable price, so Toshiba needs to keep a tight quality control on its product with regular firmware updates when needed.

Reliability and longevity of performance is the very foundation of a format and this will surely be tested in the years to come.

C.M

I foresee this is a Prophesy worthy of Nostradamus

May I add (and as Ive stated before) the format with the easiest ot crack encryption will have a huge advantage in consumers (and salemens) eyes also.

Joe Below....."which one can I burn a copy of of ?"

J.B Harvey ....."Brand X"

"Sold"

[Skid_MacMarx]

Just to clarify are you saying that the DVD Forum has more cash reserves to support their chosen format than the blu ray backers?

I think everyone should read the DVD Forum charter, and keep in mind that BD Association members are also DVD Forum members.

Article 16. Antitrust Compliance

The Forum will conduct all of its activities in strict compliance with all applicable laws, including all applicable antitrust laws.

http://www.dvdforum.org/about-charter.htm

[franin]

I hope they both stay. I enjoy looking at my collection.A big bunch of red collection to my left and a new beginning of blue on my right.I just love High def.And the people who don't have it a missing out big time.