The Digital Bits Blu-ray/hd Dvd Article.

[hypnotoad8128]

Interesting reading at The Digital Bits..... It's long winded but it's conclusions are plain & simple and also quite level headed.

In other high-def news, we've got the first reports on actual unit software sales numbers, though the numbers come from Sony Computer Entertainment America (which has an obvious bias). Next Generation magazine has reported Sony's claim that 439,000 Blu-ray movie discs have sold in the U.S., while 438,000 HD-DVDs have sold. We believe these numbers are format to date. It will be interesting to see if any third party tracking companies release unit sales numbers to confirm Sony's claims. Still, they don't seem out of line with the data we've seen from Nielsen VideoScan recently.

Meanwhile, Newsweek magazine has posted an interesting story recently that has relevance to the HD format war. The piece indicates that the adult film industry is in the middle of its worst software sales slump in years, in part impacted by the sheer volume of free adult content available online. That would stand in sharp contrast to the notion that the adult industry is powerful enough to influence the HD-DVD/Blu-ray format war. In fact, despite the free content that's already online, industry analysts see the most profitable part of the porn market moving from DVD directly to the Internet... bypassing HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc entirely. Several adult producers have told us here at The Bits that the ultimate goal is to deliver high-definition adult content directly to computers and DVRs via broadband, without any physical media involved.

Here's yet another major HD story, and it's breaking news: A hacker or hackers on the Doom9 forums are reporting that they've actually managed to discover the so-called "processing key" that allows them to circumvent the AACS DRM protection on ALL HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc software. Naturally, the AACS Licensing Administrator is "investigating the claims." This could end up being a MAJOR story, so we'll watch how it develops. Reminds me of a classic Scotty quote from one of the Trek films: "The more they over think the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain." You can read more here at InfoWorld and here at engadget.

Finally today, I'm tickled to learn that I'm not the only media analyst that's earned the ire of a select group of... shall we say, passionate?... early adopters on the Net. CNet executive editor David Carnoy has apparently been flamed too by HD-DVD enthusiasts online for daring to suggest that HD-DVD may not have a rosy future. You can read his amusing editorial reaction here.

You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.

Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.

I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - namely, ALL those things I just mentioned above? Frankly, the best sales pitch the HD-DVD camp seems to be able to make right now is: "Hey, we've got DVD right in the name! Plus cheap off-brand players are on the way! And porn!" I guess I have to be the guy who states the obvious, but doesn't that seem a little odd to anyone?

The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.

I've also heard people cite universal players as the answer to having two formats. But the problem with universal players is that while they make life easier for early adopters, they do nothing to clear up the mass consumer (or mainstream media) perception of a format war, so those folks still remain on the sidelines. In addition to that, universal players tend to cost more, which again doesn't affect early adopters that much but is one more strike against adoption by consumers at large, who are price sensitive.

As for porn... I've addressed that issue in the past, and you saw the Newsweek story posted above. Unlike the situation back in the days of VHS versus Betamax, cheap porn is already available everywhere on DVD and online. Porn is not going to decide this format war.

As I've said before, I like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc. They're both great - they both deliver the goods. But there just isn't room for TWO great formats. And at this point, I just don't see any likely circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.

Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. I'm tired of talking to reps for studios that are sitting on the fence or straddling both formats, who gamely spout the diplomatic company line about how great both formats are on the record, but off the record tell you how sick they all are of the situation and how much more hassle and headache it's caused them having to support THREE formats (including standard DVD). And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple. They don't want to have to worry about having to buy the red box, or the blue box... or even the red AND blue box.

I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. All you enthusiasts that have trenched in to support your particular format of choice come hell or high water had better enjoy the movies you're getting now, because if both formats fizzle out, forget about ever getting deep catalog, or older classics that cost money to restore for HD - money that would have come from software sales that aren't happening because too many people stubbornly stuck to their guns and the format war dragged out until nobody cared anymore. I think Stephen Colbert said it best when predicting the future of the HD format war: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy." There could be a lot more "truthiness" in that statement than some want to believe.

For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.

[-Bishop-]

You know that article reads strange to me, it's thoughtful, intelligent, and makes 'some' valid points, but ultimately a lot of it still reads as the options of a blu-ray fanboy, who is buying into the current Sony hype of having won the war...

But maybe it's just me?

[Alfred Smee]

"DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed."

An excellent article and the paragraph above says it all. History has proven conclusively that there is no room for two formats. It is pointless buying either format until a clear winner is decided, otherwise you are throwing money down the drain. So unless you have "cash to splash", wait.

[momaw]

Looks like Bill Hunt over at the bits has had a gutful of the war and is telling people what he thinks. This includes in no uncertain terms that the HD DVD supporters should give up and go home as they are ruining HD for everyone.

To be honest I don't know how to respond. I have read and respected Bill Hunt for years, but I don't know if I can side with this one. It is very easy for Yanks to call out support blu-ray, blu-ray supports them. It is doubtful (no matter how many promises are made) we will get the same level of service in a timely manner that they do. History just does not support that position.

I'm not quite ready to trade my bat and ball in for just a bat with the promise that balls will be provided at a later date.

Personally, I didn't see a need to start a whole new thread on it with the 58 odd threads started in the last two day on the exact same topic, so those are my thoughts on the article I had already posted prior to this thread.

[betty boop]

sounds like a stalemate already, or a two horse race...

sonys own figures mentioned there says it all I think ...

total hi-def market sales....(bluray)439,000 + hd-dvd (438,000) = 877,000

blu-ray sales 439,000 out of 877,000 or 50.057 % of market share

hd-dvd sales 438,000 out of 877,000 or 49.943 % of market share

wow blu-ray 1000 discs more of market share or 0.11% more market share !

the point that even with sonys own figures that hd-dvd is only 1000 less on blu-ray out of total 877,000 hi-def sales or 0.11% less of the total market says it all I think on just how close things are !.

unless the formats can get the mass public interested then its headed for a dvd-a & sacd stalemate if its not there already...

And yes quite likely the format that wins could end up being the one the public dont buy. only because its the one pushed by equipment manufacturers & retailers & the movie studios who are lookign to make some more money on the back of these new formats.

anyone got how many dvds are sold annually..would put hi-def sales in perspective in respect to what the mass public purchase.

[snaggs1503560016]

sounds like a stalemate already, or a two horse race...

sonys own figures mentioned there says it all I think ...

total hi-def market sales....(bluray)439,000 + hd-dvd (438,000) = 877,000

blu-ray sales 439,000 out of 877,000 or 50.057 % of market share

hd-dvd sales 438,000 out of 877,000 or 49.943 % of market share

wow blu-ray 1000 discs more of market share or 0.11% more market share !

*cough* How long has HD-DVD been out to achieve its sales? It took Blu-ray a matter of weeks to outpace years of HD-DVD sales.

What does that say to you?

Daniel.

[Hydrology]

I have been a very long time reader of thedigitalbits website, but since the advent of next-gen, Bill's slant towards BR has put me off visiting his site. Sad this format war has changed so many things...

How long has HD-DVD been out to achieve its sales? It took Blu-ray a matter of weeks to outpace years of HD-DVD sales.

How many times are you going to post misinformation? HD-DVD was launched almost 12 months ago, hardly years now is it?

[snaggs1503560016]

I have been a very long time reader of thedigitalbits website, but since the advent of next-gen, Bill's slant towards BR has put me off visiting his site. Sad this format war has changed so many things...

How many times are you going to post misinformation? HD-DVD was launched almost 12 months ago, hardly years now is it?

Mis-information? Into the 2nd year for HD-DVD.. that is years.. enjoy your D-VHS

Daniel.

[Hydrology]

Mis-information? Into the 2nd year for HD-DVD.. that is years.. enjoy your D-VHS

Daniel.

The 2nd year for HD-DVD starts in April. We are currently in Feb. Interesting, you can calculate Nielson figures but struggle with adding months. Is this lack of basic education typical of all BR fanbois?

[betty boop]

*cough* How long has HD-DVD been out to achieve its sales? It took Blu-ray a matter of weeks to outpace years of HD-DVD sales.

What does that say to you?

Daniel.

blu-ray has only been selling a matter of weeks ? vs years ? of hd-dvd you must work for one of the spin merchants !

so daniel what is dvd sales by comparison. I would like to know myself how it compares to the hi-def formats to get into perspective.

[snaggs1503560016]

blu-ray has only been selling a matter of weeks ? vs years ? of hd-dvd you must work for one of the spin merchants !

so daniel what is dvd sales by comparison. I would like to know myself how it compares to the hi-def formats to get into perspective.

I think its roughly like this..

DVD : gazzlillions

Blu-ray : fast start

with HD-DVD and D-VHS fighting it out for the last place..

[Hydrology]

I think its roughly like this..

DVD : gazzlillions

Blu-ray : fast start

with HD-DVD and D-VHS fighting it out for the last place..

Daniel, I have to admit, you win. You are offically the saddest member on the DTV Forums. Congratulations. Now go home and watch your copy of Swat on BR.

[snaggs1503560016]

Daniel, I have to admit, you win. You are offically the saddest member on the DTV Forums. Congratulations. Now go home and watch your copy of Sway on BR.

Me thinks that someone who constantly has to resort to personal attacks to make their arguments is uncertain of their convictions.

Lets just some things up...

Blu-ray has sold more players than HD-DVD.. and the rate of growth is accelerating

Blu-ray has sold more movies than HD-DVD.. and the rate of growth is accelerating

More shops sell Blu-ray hardware, and recommend against buying HD-DVD

More shops sell Blu-ray movies, and refuse to sell HD-DVD

Most hardware manufactures support.. Blu Ray! 9 vs 1

Most studio's support Blu-Ray

The largest studios support Blu-Ray

Blu-ray has more upcoming titles for release (not suprising when you have studio support)

Nielsen results show Blu-ray has taken the lead

Sales history from Amazon and DVD Empire show HD-DVD nose diving and Blu-Ray taking off

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Really.. to be honest.. what more do you need to see? HD-DVD's only advantage is that their players are CURRENTLY multi-region.. something which will vanish future players and end up being worse than Blu-rays simple 3 zone system. Neither of which matter, since both will be cracked and supplied region free eventually.

Daniel.

[Hydrology]

Me thinks that someone who constantly has to resort to personal attacks to make their arguments is uncertain of their convictions.

I resort to personal attacks ONLY when the aggrevator posts something immensely childish that there is no other recourse than to drop doewn to their lowest common denominator.

So with BR the obvious winner, how are you enjoying your new format? How many BR movies did you watch this week. How many BR discs did you buy?

Your new here. All your above statements were already mentioned aeons ago. Is the BR fanboi camp incapable of coming up with anything new?

[momaw]

*cough* How long has HD-DVD been out to achieve its sales? It took Blu-ray a matter of weeks to outpace years of HD-DVD sales.

What does that say to you?

Daniel.

HD DVD players were on the market only 6 weeks ahead of Blu-ray players in the states

[snaggs1503560016]

I resort to personal attacks ONLY when the aggrevator posts something immensely childish that there is no other recourse than to drop doewn to their lowest common denominator.

Ok, so you justify your personal attacks by making another one.. at least your being consistent.

So with BR the obvious winner, how are you enjoying your new format? How many BR movies did you watch this week. How many BR discs did you buy?

I'm not and none, still fence sitting, but my DVD player is giving me read errors and Im trying to hold out as long as possible. I am enjoying watching you trip over and contradict yourself every 2nd sentence.

Your new here.

Actually.. I've been here a long long time.. part of the first few who got a little card in the box with their Thompson STB.

All your above statements were already mentioned aeons ago. Is the BR fanboi camp incapable of coming up with anything new?

Did they also mention the JBHiFi news, HD-DVD sales dive and everything else aeons ago?

Really? Really? Are you super sure?

Also, even for the some statements which are old.. it was a summary of the current position. And the fact that nothing has changed in favor of HD-DVD is a statement in itself.

Daniel.

[momaw]

HD DVD players were on the market only 6 weeks ahead of Blu-ray players in the states

As usual the relevant posts get ignored so the flames of war and emotion can be fan'd. If you are here for propaganda bombshells followed by a slanging match please take it where it belongs

http://www.dtvforum.info/index.php?showtopic=46704

[snaggs1503560016]

As usual the relevant posts get ignored so the flames of war and emotion can be fan'd. If you are here for propaganda bombshells followed by a slanging match please take it where it belongs

http://www.dtvforum.info/index.php?showtopic=46704

Just a reminder.. your not the censor or oracle of truth. Maybe you could set the example and walk the walk by restricting your comments to your own thread. Just about now would be a good demonstration.

Maybe you could issue the same invitation to MarkH who just keeps making factual errors. Not that I never do, but at least I admit them!

Daniel.

[betty boop]

HD DVD players were on the market only 6 weeks ahead of Blu-ray players in the states

ah no according to snaggs blu-ray has only been sellign for a 'matter of weeks' and hd-dvd for 'years'

[momaw]

Just a reminder.. your not the censor or oracle of truth. Maybe you could set the example and walk the walk by restricting your comments to your own thread. Just about now would be a good demonstration.

Maybe you could issue the same invitation to MarkH who just keeps making factual errors. Not that I never do, but at least I admit them!

Daniel.

Thanks for proving my point, personal attacks over actual conversation.

[Hydrology]

Maybe you could issue the same invitation to MarkH who just keeps making factual errors. Not that I never do, but at least I admit them!

Please highlight my factual errors, and to prove they are indeed "errors", you will have to provide actual facts to discredit them.

[Mining Man]

... still fence sitting ...

Why?

[momaw]

Why?

Because "Shock and Awe" doesnt work.......

I have a question. Did this great launch and the declarations of victory in todays press translate to all you guys who have been pushing it as the death knell for HD DVD, going out and buying a Blu-ray player?

Will you be rushing out come payday to pick up one of these machines and all the discs you can carry from your local BD exclusive JB store?

Cause, correct me if I am wrong, unless it did convince you of this and has sent you out to pick up said items now (not at some undisclosed future date greater than 3 months from now), then what is the difference between today and thursday last week?

Of course he is happy to declare a winner based on at best half-truths, but not prepared to fork out to support his position. Newsflash, the products need to be bought to win.

[Mining Man]

I just thought the question had to be asked. He's imploring us all to concede the war is over, yet he then goes on to say he's still fence sitting. Personally, I think horse 4 will win race number 7. Would someone care to bet with their money for me?

You know, if there's one thing these discussions are yet to see, it's someone saying "Hey, I just got a BD player and here are the photos of it compared to DVD, and these are my reasons for believing it's better, and people should support the move to an HD format because of those reasons etc etc ...".

I might go and check out an Automotive forum, and tell them how much better Porsche are than Ferrari. Do you think I'll have a credibility problem, given the Astra in my garage?

[momaw]

I just thought the question had to be asked. He's imploring us all to concede the war is over, yet he then goes on to say he's still fence sitting. Personally, I think horse 4 will win race number 7. Would someone care to bet with their money for me?

You know, if there's one thing these discussions are yet to see, it's someone saying "Hey, I just got a BD player and here are the photos of it compared to DVD, and these are my reasons for believing it's better, and people should support the move to an HD format because of those reasons etc etc ...".

I might go and check out an Automotive forum, and tell them how much better Porsche are than Ferrari. Do you think I'll have a credibility problem, given the Astra in my garage?

I agree, by all means ownership should not be a pre-requisite to participation. But......well I said it above. At some point you have to put your money where you mouth is when you take your arguments to the extreme. If you havn't been convinced to actually fork out by the "shock and awe" you can't call a winner.