Another Prediction Of Hd-dvd Victory Over Blu-ray

[wilsact]

Not sure if this has been posted before (apologies if it has know its a bit older), but makes an interesting read. From what I have been reading lately alot of this still holds true.

From highly respected Projectorcentral.

www.projectorcentral.com/blu-ray_2.htm

Cheers

[kamma]

that article is 6 months old

[Skid_MacMarx]

It would be interesting to read a review by Evan Powell in two years time.. although this piece sounds a bit like a sales pitch for HD-DVD.

Meanwhile, you'll have a huge variety of titles from the HD-DVD friendly studios to select from, so you can enjoy true HD quality at prices that are much easier on your budget. If Disney, in the end, chooses not to actively support HD-DVD, the company will simply lose out on your HD disc purchases. Oh well, that's the breaks. Let Disney management explain to their shareholders why they backed what is now looking like it might be the lame pony in this horse race. This is not the consumer's problem.

http://www.projectorcentral.com/blu-ray_2.htm

I agree the high price of the Blu-ray equipment atm is a real negative..

[wilsact]

I have no preference for either blu-ray or Hd-dvd. Like many others fence sitting to see who finally wins out:) Actually find it quite amusing how people get so brand/format defensive this early on.

Though I guess if I had forked out $1000 or more I'd want to think I had made the right choice too.

I prefer to sit back, let them fight it out, read and research what the experts say, use my own eyes and ears, and then buy when the time and price is right for me. Though each to their own.

In defence of projector central though, have found them to be very knowledgeable and impartial with their reviews in the past. Look back at their other older reviews and their current ones, what they rate, what they don't. Think most would agree that they are on the money with what they pick out as best.

As already stated, I know this article was written 6 months ago, but interesting nevertheless, and look forward to new reviews from them and other sources. Be very interesting to see where this all ends up. Hmmm....beta...vhs.....DVD+R.....DVD-R......DVD-RAM....plasma...lcd.....dlp....it goes on and on, competition has to be a good thing, though we all know the superior product /format doesn't always win out!!!

[Skid_MacMarx]

Though I guess if I had forked out $1000 or more I'd want to think I had made the right choice too.

I'd put a wager down on the "co-existence" scenario (but who knows? too early to call) The difference this time around is that both technologies are used for a number of applications.

As I already have a HD screen .. I'm willing to part with $1k for a console/player but like yourself many will wait to the dust settles and prices drop much further before making a decision.

Be very interesting to see where this all ends up. Hmmm....beta...vhs.....DVD+R.....DVD-R......DVD-RAM....plasma...lcd.....dlp....it goes on and on, competition has to be a good thing, though we all know the superior product /format doesn't always win out!!!

I consider both of these formats, when it comes down to the overall SQ & PQ, to be of equal quality

not the first format "war" nor the last.. nature of the beast..

but I feel the consumer should support dual format players if the production houses/studios are not prepared to release titles on both formats.

[Tweet]

.....but I feel the consumer should support dual format players if the production houses/studios are not prepared to release titles on both formats.

Dual Format discs are a much more 'universal' product than a Dual Format player as it is easily transportable between all players.

It also allows manufacturers who are already geared up to produce for one format to continue as such without any problems with contracts and licenses.

The D.F disc is essentially a studio's compromise to gain profits from both formats where it might have been denied to them through incompatibility.

C.M

[momaw]

Dual Format discs are a much more 'universal' product than a Dual Format player as it is easily transportable between all players.

It also allows manufacturers who are already geared up to produce for one format to continue as such without any problems with contracts and licenses.

The D.F disc is essentially a studio's compromise to gain profits from both formats where it might have been denied to them through incompatibility.

C.M

but dual format discs require all studios to put them out or they are of no help, whereas dual format players means we aren't tied to the studios allegiances.

I prefer to sit back, let them fight it out, read and research what the experts say, use my own eyes and ears, and then buy when the time and price is right for me. Though each to their own.

Are you suggesting that those who have bought players from either side have not done this?

[mattis]

Dual Format discs are a much more 'universal' product than a Dual Format player as it is easily transportable between all players.

It also allows manufacturers who are already geared up to produce for one format to continue as such without any problems with contracts and licenses.

The D.F disc is essentially a studio's compromise to gain profits from both formats where it might have been denied to them through incompatibility.

C.M

The big issue here however is that the authoring process (the feature presentation aside) is completely different for each format. So to release a dual format disc that studio in question has to have both versions authored and ready at the same time.

This is likely to lead to very feature light compromised releases where there are no extra features or very limited ones. The IME/UC features available on many current HD DVD titles for example don't just translate to Blu Ray. On HD DVD these processes are scripted while on Blu Ray it's a Java programming exercise.

Matt

[momaw]

The big issue here however is that the authoring process (the feature presentation aside) is completely different for each format. So to release a dual format disc that studio in question has to have both versions authored and ready at the same time.

This is likely to lead to very feature light compromised releases where there are no extra features or very limited ones. The IME/UC features available on many current HD DVD titles for example don't just translate to Blu Ray. On HD DVD these processes are scripted while on Blu Ray it's a Java programming exercise.

Matt

Very good point. Plus we already pay a premium for an sd side on HD DVD's, how much of a premium will we pay for a blu-ray side? I can see prices at the $49.95 mark if this became the standard.

[wilsact]

Are you suggesting that those who have bought players from either side have not done this?

Not at all. Just not sure how much so when the formats are still very much new, and their fates unknown.

I agree that dual format players are the way to go, but hasn't Sony threatened to revoke Blu-ray licensing from any manufacturer who does this????? Not sure how LG is getting around this with their new one....???

Sure that both current formats are equal on picture and sound quality, but with the current guidelines in place (unless compromises are made.....unlikely surely??? with so much money invested by both sides, it looks like sadly only one will survive.

I definately want one of them for my hd display and projector, but do not want to be stuck with a unit, with no software available further down the track. SACD and DVD-audio anyone>>>>!!!!! Luckily these units could also play dvd's and normal cd's:)

[Skid_MacMarx]

Very good point. Plus we already pay a premium for an sd side on HD DVD's, how much of a premium will we pay for a blu-ray side? I can see prices at the $49.95 mark if this became the standard.

Is there enough room to place a SD program as well on these new Warner THD dual format discs?

If they are anything like the audio DualDisc.. the programmes being on both sides of the disc like an LP.. they would be more prone to damage.

Personally, I would prefer Dual format machines but Bishop is not so not optimistic about that..

I can understand the more "high end" HD enthusiasts arguing for separate dedicated players.. but I dare say the majority would prefer an universal player considering that 3 or 4 studios only release titles on one particular format.

Warner argues that it developed the THD disc because in the long run it will be cheaper to produce that one item rather than release the title on an additional format as well.

So if true, it would cost the company less hence the price should come down.

but they know the enthusiast has money to burn and they will fleece every single cent...

[momaw]

Is there enough room to place a SD program as well on these new Warner THD dual format discs?

Not unless they invent a 3 sided disc.

The disc structure for each format is incompatible with the other formats.

Warner argues that it developed the THD disc because in the long run it will be cheaper to produce that one item rather than release the title on an additional format as well.

So if true, it would cost the company less hence the price should come down.

I am sure THD will save them money, but not in production costs. For a THD disc to come to market they need to do the following:

1) Author a HD DVD version

2) Author a Blu-ray version

3) Produce a HD DVD disc side

4) Produce a Blu-ray disc side

Now whether they do this as a single disc or 2 separate discs, they have still spent the same amount to get to this point.

Now keep in mind they also need time in a THD replicating plant and since there will be less of those than HD DVD or Blu-ray replicating plants, it will take more time to get the discs out, plus they need to recoup the costs of tooling a plant to dual standards.

At this point the disc cost for a single THD is the equivalent (if not slightly more) then producing a Blu-ray and a HD DVD version.

So how are Warners saving money on this? simple, they have less idle stock on the shelves. If the blu-ray version of a film is more popular, then instead of having the HD DVD version sitting gathering dust, Blu-ray owners are picking them up as they can use the Blu-ray side and vice versa. Retailers will love this as they can stock Warner titles secure in the knowledge they will move, unlike their format specific versions from other studios.

This is a win for Warners and a win for the retailer - more profits to each due to less idle stock.

But, someone still has to pay for the fact this one disc still had the production costs of two seperate version rolled into one. Who do you think that is going to be?

Dual Format SD/HD DVD discs have already proven that they have higher costs and that those costs are passed on to the consumer. Do you honestly think this will be different?

Disclaimer: Obviously this is my opinion and this is based on my subjective analysis of the situation

[Skid_MacMarx]

Just not sure how much so when the formats are still very much new, and their fates unknown.

I agree we should put things into perspective

The biggest factor is that the majority of people just aren't early adopters. Keep in mind that it was only in the third quarter of 2006 that DVD player ownership overtook VCR ownership for the first time—a decade after the first DVD players were introduced. The end result will still be Blu-ray and HD DVD battling it out on the bleeding edge with the small number of early adopters while everybody else is content to sit home and watch old school DVDs.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070104-8550.html

So the "die hards" who want to battle it out will be paying a premium for some time to come.

People keep going on about the cost.. the early adopters are not concerned about the cost here

its quality...

and really neither format is inferior this time round

Currently, LG is the only company manufacturing dual-format players (and the Super Multi Blue Player can't handle some of HD DVD's features); none of the other major consumer electronics manufacturers have committed to dual-format devices of their own. Samsung has come the closest, making its ruminations over whether to build such a player publicly known. At the same time, Samsung executive said that his company would only release a dual-format player if HD DVD proved to be as successful as Blu-ray.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070125-8702.html

[momaw]

Just in regard to the THD discs again, they do have a couple of advantages. Retailers who have declared an allegiance will be forced to stock both formats as you can't have one without the other. Also if most discs became THD discs, then the consumer looking at titles on the shelf trying to decide which format to go with, will pick the cheaper hardware option. Of course this would require all studios to come on board. Mind you if the disc price is considerably higher they may just stick with SD.

[Skid_MacMarx]

Dual Format SD/HD DVD discs have already proven that they have higher costs and that those costs are passed on to the consumer. Do you honestly think this will be different?

I'm only quoting the original announcement of why Warner was to introduce the THD discs.

I gather when they introduce the THD discs, they will drop the SD/HD-DVD DualDiscs

Hard to say.. regarding price.. I remember jazz Lps coming out with PCM recordings on them and they slugged you an extra $3 or $5.

I think if they can find a way to slug you a few extra dollars; they will.

Still I'm amazed that there is a price difference of up to $7 or $10 for Blu-ray movies between JB stores..

Not unless they invent a 3 sided disc.

I read somewhere one of manufacturers could place a SD layer above or below the HD-DVD layer.

Sorry I can not track down the article in question.. thought you may know....

[momaw]

I read somewhere one of manufacturers could place a SD layer above or below the HD-DVD layer.

Sorry I can not track down the article in question.. thought you may know....

If this is possible I would think it would add even more to the production cost or they would be using it instead of double sided dual format discs that they use at present.

[mattis]

Not unless they invent a 3 sided disc.

This was my reaction till I recalled that you can have a dual layer single sided DVD/HD DVD combo disc. I think the HD layer sits below the DVD layer. This is why there is a Combo Disc priority setting in the Toshiba HD-E1, so it knows when it encounters this kind of disc, which version you want to play. I am not aware that such a disc exists (yet) however. The reason we are only seeing flippies I suspect is because that gives you the freedom to use multi-layer capacity for each format's side.

Since Blu Ray does not support a combo format as such, this would however not be possible on a BD.

So I suppose in theory you could make a THD disc with 3 formats covered in one. DVD and HD DVD in single layers attached to one dual layer side, and BD on the flip side.

Matt

[Tweet]

So if a studio decides to punch out THD discs just how much more than a 12cent SD DVD would it cost ?

When one considers the number of disc replications is made of a movie the actual production costs per disc are minimal.

So if the overall production cost of a THD disc of a movie is $1 then there is going to be quite a lot of 'fat' in its final pricing on the shop shelf.

This 'fat' in pricing allows a lot of competitiveness between stores which only have to stock one physical disc of the movie rather than two. Shelf space can also be equated as money to a retailer.

Prices for THD movie discs are more likely to fall quicker than single format discs as volume sales for such discs would be much higher.

Any studio not wishing to participate would begin to lose revenue as they would have restricted their marketshare.

Initially THD discs would be a few dollars more but volume sales would begin to phase out the single format disc of either format.

C.M

[momaw]

Man I have to stay out of AVS. Those guys are a bunch of rumour-mongering sheep. I mean at least we have a semblance of intelligent discussion here. Over there, some loud-mouth fanboi posts some ridiculous conspiracy theory (on either side) and all the sheep go "oh my, that must be true "and get all riled up over it to the point of petitioning studios over an unsubstantiated fanboi ramble! It's nuts. I mean I used to find it entertaining, but now it seems there are no sane people left over there and it makes me angry trying to find anything that isn't complete bull followed by dozens of sheep baying.

That feels better.

Go there at the peril of your own sanity and common sense.

Hopefully the sane contributors will be back from whatever sabbatical they have taken of late.

[Skid_MacMarx]

Initially THD discs would be a few dollars more but volume sales would begin to phase out the single format disc of either format.

I agree

So I suppose in theory you could make a THD disc with 3 formats covered in one. DVD and HD DVD in single layers attached to one dual layer side, and BD on the flip side.

The production houses/studios have got used to the idea of just one release either it be CD or DVD.. it would be interesting if this becomes a route they may choose to follow in future..

Man I have to stay out of AVS. . . .

what subject in particular are you refering to?

[momaw]

what subject in particular are you refering to?

where to start.......

try this for one

[Skid_MacMarx]

where to start.......

try this for one

sorry momaw, I rarely visit that forum...

I don't know momaw

The delay in the US may be more to do with introducing THD discs

I personally would prefer to see the Matrix series on THD discs and would wait the extra months..

such is the instant gratification society... if a product is not released when they feel it should be released they declare a holy war ,, heaven help the athesist

rdjam Big fan of GOODLY HD:

So here WE are, HD DVD owners, with hardly any releases right now because they are apparently being withheld by studios to wait until the Bluray versions are ready too!?

. . . .

I suggest that you keep it nice:

1) We love the company and appreciate the support they have given HD DVD - but we have this problem we'd like to discuss...

2) We love buying their movies

3) We are shocked and dismayed to learn that they may be holding back "key" release titles because Bluray is not yet ready - this is not fair and could hurt the HD DVD format

4) Please release these titles on HD DVD now - the format is ready for them

5) When "advanced profile" Bluray players are ready, they can test and release their Bluray versions at that time

6) The HD DVD format needs their support today and the format can handle all their advanced content - please release the movies now!

HI all HD DVD owners!

.....

So here is a much "friendlier" version of the previous petitions, short and sweet, as they say.

EDIT: We have launched a NEW petition page, covering ALL studios - this is so that everyone doesn't have to sign multiple redundant petitions.

he certainly likes the petitions

Even HJ is not in the same league as rdjam Big fan of GOODLY HD:

But what do you expect its a forum....

ps .. personally I can't see the big problem if a studio wants to release both formats at the same time...

[momaw]

sorry momaw, I rarely visit that forum...

I don't know momaw

The delay in the US may be more to do with introducing THD discs

I personally would prefer to see the Matrix series on THD discs and would wait the extra months..

such is the instant gratification society... if a product is not released when they feel it should be released they declare a holy war ,, heaven help the athesist

rdjam Big fan of GOODLY HD:

he certainly likes the petitions

Even HJ is not in the same league as rdjam Big fan of GOODLY HD:

But what do you expect its a forum....

ps .. personally I can't see the big problem if a studio wants to release both formats at the same time...

The problem is it is all based on assumptions with no evidence whatsoever. That's what drives me nuts. If they want to debate their paranoia go for it. Just don't start petitions over what is probably nothing. Warners Europe has release dates for these discs, and they are HD DVD exclusive. Just cause Warners US haven't officially announced a date does not mean a "holy war" as you put it should be called. They should be happy they will most likely get these movies first.

Whackjobs the lot of them

and you thought I was nuts

[Skid_MacMarx]

and you thought I was nuts

nah

ha ha I bet there will be few scratching there heads at Warner when they receive those petitions

[MeWhoElse]

BTW, Blu-ray can have dual layer SD DVD and Blu-ray, understandably the yields wouldn't be terrific as yet, and would most probably be only 5GB/25G (4.7/23.3GiB)

Same case for HD DVD (4.7/14.1GiB), more then likely higher yield, due to very similar process.

For HD DVD, layer starts at 0.6mm and goes towards 0.0mm same as DVD for dual layer.

For Blu-ray, the layer starts at 0.1mm and goes towards 0.0mm (but actually all layers MUST still fit in the 0.1mm area so ųm in seperation of tracks)

Side note... interesting that 1x of HD DVD is faster then 1x of Blu-ray.